2015 NBA Draft: Who Teams Should Have Picked Based on Analytics
By now, we all know who got picked where last night. Some obvious picks were made -- like the Timberwolves selecting Karl-Anthony Towns first overall -- while others weren't so obvious.
At the time, some picks made a lot of sense while others didn't make any sense whatsoever. These picks were judged by things like talent, size and upside.
But what about now?
Here at numberFire, we like to dig into what the numbers say. So that's exactly what I'm going to do here. Instead of looking at each team's pick and analyzing it, I'm going to look at who the numbers say each team should have selected according to the team's weaknesses and needs.
I'm going to run through the top 30 picks with no player being selected more than once while working off the assumption that each team would pick the best available player at that position of need. Keep in mind that I will base the picks off of two key numbers -- our very own nERD metric and ESPN's Real Plus-Minus.
nERD is our in-house player ranking that measures the total contribution of a player throughout the course of a season, based on his efficiency. nERD indicates how many games above or below .500 an otherwise average team could expect to win in a season with that player as a starter.
Real Plus-Minus is very similar in that it measures a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, taking into account teammates, opponents and additional factors.
Let the 2015 NBA Re-Draft begin...
*Denotes anticipated traded pick