3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on 1/28/19

Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors

Price: $9,800

A matchup with the Indiana Pacers hasn't been great for anyone's fantasy value this season, but there are two things to factor in tonight. Their being a terrible matchup was before Victor Oladipo went down, and this is also one of the somewhat rare occasions in which we get the Golden State Warriors favored by only single-digit points.

Indy's 104.2 defensive rating is the second-best in the NBA, but they're now without one of their best defenders, as Oladipo ranked top 10 among all shooting guards in ESPN's Defensive Real Plus-Minus metric on the year.

Kevin Durant is averaging a pretty solid 35.6 minutes per game on the season -- his most since becoming a Warrior -- but that's still being held down by how many blowouts Golden State is involved in.

In games decided by at least 15 points, Durant is averaging only 32.2 minutes, and that marks drops to 31.8 in games decided by at least 20. In games with single-digit margins of victory, though, he averages 38.6.

While that sample, naturally, includes matchups against tougher opponents, he's still averaging far better numbers in those games, posting 31.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists compared to 24.7 points, 6.4 boards, 5.8 assists out of sample.

A nine-point spread certainly doesn't guarantee that this one will be close, but with a price tag below $10,000 you can afford to gamble on that.

Our models project Durant for Monday's top fantasy score.