Price: $11,700

In recent weeks, Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn't been the same daily fantasy beast we've become so accustomed to over the last two years. He hasn't reached five-times his salary-implied value since January 29th, and he's averaging just 46.1 FanDuel points per game through seven games this month. Only one of those games has come against an above-average defense, too.

So what gives?

With the Greek Freak, something has to give. He's too good to be held down for such a long stretch of time. But, basically, it boils down to shooting. Since flipping to February, Giannis' effective field goal percentage is down to 48.1%. In the two months prior, he was at 55.9% and 56.8% in December and January, respectively. And that difference can be attributed to his increase in three-point attempts, with 2.1 three-point attempts and a three-point attempt rate of 11.4% over the last seven.

Tonight, the Denver Nuggets present a good matchup for Antetokounmpo to get back on track and score inside. Per Cleaning the Glass, Denver is 14th in both three-point attempt rate (31.1%) and frequency of opponent attempts at the rim (34%), but they've been dominated to the tune of a 65.8% field goal percentage at the rim -- that ranks 28th of 30 NBA teams.

On the other side, Giannis rates in the league's 85th percentile in converting at the rim (72%). If he gets back to his driving ways and exploits the Nuggets' weakness, expect a big night from the guy our models have as the top-ranked player tonight.