NBA

3 NBA DraftKings Value Plays to Target on 12/28/17

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Jayson Tatum, SF/PF, Boston Celtics

DraftKings Salary: $5,500

DraftKings priced Jayson Tatum down $100 since yesterday, despite the fact that the Boston Celtics are dealing with a plethora of injuries to their wings. Tatum put up 31.25 DraftKings points last night in 35 minutes with Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown, and Semi Ojeleye out.

Morris is available to play tonight, but Boston will again be without Brown and Ojeleye. Tatum has seen a 2.2% boost in his usage rate with Brown off the floor this year, and he should see his minutes solidified with a combined 45 minutes open on the wing due to the absences of Ojeleye and Brown.

A matchup against the Houston Rockets isn't as inviting as it has been in past years, as they have some pesky wing defenders in Trevor Ariza and P.J. Tucker, but they are without their best perimeter defender in Chris Paul and their strongest rim protector in Clint Capela, which makes their defense a lot softer as a whole. They've allowed just 1.085 points per possession with both Paul and Capela on the floor, but that number drops dramatically to 1.209 without them.

For reference, Houston has played at the eighth-fastest pace this season, with their opponents averaging 101.4 possessions per game against them. At that pace, allowing 1.209 points per possession instead of 1.085 is a difference of 122.6 points allowed to 110 points. Obviously, that doesn't mean that Boston is going to come out and drop 122 on Houston tonight, but it does show how much worse they are defensively without Capela and Paul.

The pace-up factor is significant, because Boston has played very slowly this season, coming in 24th in pace. Tatum has been far and away their best scorer in transition, though, in the limited opportunities their down-pace nature has given him. Among players with at least 50 transition field goal attempts this season, no one has a higher effective field goal percentage than Tatum. He has shot a very efficient 51.4% clip on the year, but in transition, his field goal percentage has climbed nearly to 71.2%, while his effective field goal percentage has jumped from 59.4% overall to 81.4% in transition.

Tatum should thrive in this uptempo matchup and is a terrific option in any format.