Re-Drafting the 2009 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happened
That's how it all went down. But, if we sort by VORP, how would things look after the fact?
| Pick | Team | Player | VORP | nERD | WS | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Clippers | Stephen Curry | 38.2 | 79.8 | 77.5 | .201 |
| 2 | Memphis Grizzlies | James Harden | 37.0 | 91.4 | 84.2 | .211 |
| 3 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Blake Griffin | 23.5 | 52.5 | 57.7 | .180 |
| 4 | Sacramento Kings | Danny Green | 14.7 | 17.6 | 28.9 | .130 |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Brandon Jennings | 10.9 | -10.4 | 29.0 | .088 |
| 6 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Tyreke Evans | 10.7 | -18.3 | 23.3 | .076 |
| 7 | Golden State Warriors | Ty Lawson | 10.7 | 14.2 | 40.1 | .126 |
| 8 | New York Knicks | Jrue Holiday | 10.5 | -17.2 | 23.9 | .078 |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors | Ricky Rubio | 8.2 | -4.5 | 19.4 | .095 |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jeff Teague | 7.6 | 11.1 | 36.9 | .120 |
In hindsight, Curry would be number one -- albeit, by a slim margin over Harden. As a result, the Clippers wouldn't have traded for Chris Paul. Instead, they probably would've gone out and got a complimentary wing or forward to help Curry boot up the franchise.
It's only one spot, but it would've been a big difference for Harden, going from OKC with Kevin Durant and (eventually) Russell Westbrook to Memphis with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. Going from an offensive team to an elite defensive team with whom he probably wouldn't have fit in well with, but maybe he would have brought some much-needed firepower to the Grizzlies, making them a top team in the West. Who knows!
Given that the Thunder/Supersonics took Serge Ibaka in the 2008 draft, it's unlikely they would have selected Griffin the next year if he dropped, considering they're both ahletic power forwards. Still, the Thunder would hypothetically gain a different kind of scorer who they'd likely have to let go when it came time to pay him.
Unfortunately for him, Danny Green, the 46th overall pick by the Cleveland Cavaliers, would've been subjected to the Kings' losing culture. There's quite a possibility that he would've never landed with the San Antonio Spurs. So, he would've never won a ring as a valuable part of the 2014 championship team.
As you can see, Jennings and Evans still crack the top 10 despite their injury problems and inefficiencies. Rubio drops a few picks to the Toronto Raptors, who probably wouldn't have added Kyle Lowry thinking that Rubio would be the true point guard for years to come.
Point guards Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday and Jeff Teague all enter the top 10. Lawson has been solid, but he's no Curry. Holiday is a really good point guard -- something the Knicks have lacked -- but, on the other hand, he's suffered a lot of injuries in recent years so it might not matter. As for Teague, he would've never played a big part in some really good seasons with the Atlanta Hawks.
