NASCAR Betting Guide: Enjoy Illinois 300
If you're looking for direct comps to Gateway on the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, good luck. They don't exist.
Gateway is a flat, 1.25-mile track. That means -- in theory -- a place like Phoenix should mesh well with it.
But Phoenix ran the Cup Series' new short track package; Gateway is running the intermediate package, which features more downforce than the short-track package. That's a big difference.
Of the tracks using the other package, all of them feature much higher banking than what we'll see this weekend.
We haven't seen anything like this in the current season, and it leaves plenty of uncertainty.
On top of that, practice times were super useful in last year's race at Gateway. The top four finishers in the race all ranked sixth or higher in 10-lap average during practice. That gives us an incentive to wait until cars are on track Saturday before locking in bets.
But for the first time in a while, there are a decent number of spots where my model is showing value for this week. And I'd at least like to lock in a couple bets to safeguard myself from these numbers shifting after qualifying.
Which bets are good enough values that we should look to lock them in before Saturday? Here are the two I like most based on the NASCAR odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Denny Hamlin to Win (+1000)
(UPDATE: Hamlin has since shortened to +450 to win. Even with great speed in practice and a quality showing in qualifying, I'm well below that, so the value is, unfortunately, gone here.)
The best way to overcome uncertainty with a track is to be good at all the tracks that are even mild comps to the upcoming race.
Denny Hamlin fits that mindset.
If you want to lean on the short, flat tracks, Hamlin had a good car in Phoenix. He finished poorly, but his sixth-place average running position is a better indicator of his speed than what happened on a late-race restart.
And Hamlin has been fast in this rules package. He won Kansas, had a fifth-place average running position in Dover, and had a sixth-place mark in both Vegas and Fontana, as well. He lacked speed in Darlington, but given the gap in tire wear there versus what we'll see in Gateway, it's not a huge concern.
I've got Hamlin within shouting distance of Kyle Larson and William Byron this week, and their outright odds are +450 and +650, respectively. With Hamlin at +1000 (9.1% implied) and my model putting his win odds above 10%, I feel comfortable pulling the trigger early here.
Ross Chastain Over Kevin Harvick (-112)
(UPDATE: Chastain has since shortened to -164 in this matchup. That's no longer a value, so if you want exposure, I'd hold off and check out the upside markets once the order has been set.)
I've also got value on Ross Chastain to win at +1200 and podium at +350. But the past two weeks have been odd for him, so I'd rather hold off on the upside markets. A head-to-head against Kevin Harvick does stand out enough to fire now, though.
Let's start with the struggles. In the All-Star Race, Chastain was never really a threat. But he had a good long-run car there and did pick his way through traffic. He just didn't take advantage of potential strategy calls and never got track position.
Last week in Charlotte was a bigger issue given it came in the same rules package as this weekend. It's tough to tell how much a run-in on pit road impacted his speed, but he wasn't blazing it up before then, either. It was definitely a big enough red flag to push me away from the more ambitious markets.
But Chastain -- like Hamlin -- has been good in the other somewhat-similar races this year. He had a ninth-place average running position in Phoenix and a fifth-place mark in Richmond to check the flat track box. He led 90-plus laps in Fontana, Dover, and Darlington, all of which used this same rules package. So whether it races like a short, flat track or an intermediate, it should suit Chastain.
As for Harvick, even with a win at Charlotte, the Fords -- other than RFK Racing -- have not run well in this rules package. Harvick did finish second in Darlington and fifth in Fontana, but he has led just 29 laps in this rules package for the year. He'd be a threat for the win if it skews more toward Phoenix, but given the different rules packages, I'm skeptical that'll happen.
Once you blend things together, my model has Chastain a full tier above Harvick. Thus, putting his implied odds to come out on top at 52.8% is too low for me to say no.
Pre-Practice Addition: Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+115)
(UPDATE: Bowman has since lengthened to +125 to finish top 10. Bowman qualified 18th, which is the cause for the dip, but he had decent speed in practice, ranking 10th in five-lap average. Thus, I've still got his top-10 odds at around 50%, so he's a value now at +125 if you didn't grab him earlier.)
Alex Bowman didn't light the world on fire in his return from a back injury last week. But he also made it through 600 miles and now has had an extra week to recover. That, I think, gives us the green light to buy back in.
I'm showing value on Bowman to win at +3000. He's up there thanks to the speed he showed in this rules package prior to his back injury. He had a top-seven average running position in both Fontana and Vegas, and he converted both into top-10 finishes. He also finished top 10 in Phoenix, giving us faith in his ability on flatter tracks.
Because of this -- plus his world-class equipment -- I have Bowman's top-10 odds higher than 50%. I'm receptive to adding an outright later on, but for now, the value in the top-10 market is hyper attractive.
Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1100)
(UPDATE: Byron has since shortened to +750. I'm still showing value on him there, but you can get a longer number elsewhere, and my model is particularly bullish on him. If you can get +900, I think that's a great bet. If the longest you can get is +750, I don't mind it as I'm above market still, but the presence of better numbers elsewhere lowers the allure.)
Before practice and qualifying, Byron was second favorite behind Larson. Byron had good speed in practice and qualified seventh. Despite that, he lengthened out to +1100. That, to me, is an overreaction.
I've still got Byron up in Hamlin's tier as the co-favorites for the race. Hamlin's outright odds shortened to +450 while Byron had this big lengthening. Having the old number on Hamlin allows me to have outright exposure to the two favorites, both with odds of +1000 or longer.
Byron has been good regardless of package this year. He won Phoenix in the short track package, and he won Darlington in the rules package they'll run this weekend. I don't think someone of his speed should be anywhere near this long, so I'll happily buy the dip and add him to the outright slip.
Post-Qualifying Addition: Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+145)
Prior to practice and qualifying, Brad Keselowski's top-10 odds at FanDuel were shorter than even money. Even though he had decent speed Saturday, he has lengthened all the way out to +145, and I've got that as a great value.
Keselowski did have a flat tire in practice, which could be worrisome for the race. But his car sustained no damage, and he'll keep his 19th-place starting position.
Before then, Keselowski was fast. He was 10th in single-lap speed and 7th in 5-lap average during the session.
My model thinks Keselowski has upside and is showing value on him to win at +3400. It's because of the speed he showed both in Phoenix (a flat track) and at other races using this rules package (other than Kansas). But with my model putting his top-10 odds above 50%, I'm more than happy to take the safe route and bet him in this market instead.
Post-Qualifying Addition: Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+650)
I had value on Michael McDowell to finish top 10 at +1000 before practice and qualifying. I decided not to take it then because McDowell's speed has been middling at best this year.
Whoops.
McDowell had great speed in practice, posting the second-best five-lap average in the field. He qualified just 21st, but the practice pace was great.
This comes after McDowell had a fast car in Gateway last year, too. Despite starting 17th, he had an 11th-place average running position, his second best average running position of the entire year on a non-drafting oval.
I didn't get the best number on McDowell, but I'm still showing quite a bit of value at +650 (13.3% implied odds). Given the combo of last year's run and yesterday's speed, I'm on the model's side here.
