NASCAR Betting Guide: DuraMAX Drydene 400
Nadda. Zip. Zilch.
That's basically the read we have on this weekend's race in Dover in the next-gen car.
All of the high-banked ovals this season (Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta) were drafting tracks. All of the short tracks (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville) were flat -- and Bristol was on dirt.
Enter a high-banked, non-drafting oval that's a shorter track.
Luckily, this is a track that's results are very "sticky" year-to-year. In the last six races at Dover, seven drivers have at least four top-10 finishes. Just two have only one top-10 finish. Therefore, we can be pretty reliant on track history to guide us in the right direction -- even with a new car.
Where are the sharpest spots to wager on NASCAR odds?
Kyle Larson to Win (+450; 0.6 Units)
This isn't the best number in the world, but Kyle Larson (+450) is the clear favorite entering this weekend's race.
All four of the betting favorites are from Hendrick Motorsports. The team has won 4 of the 10 races so far in 2022, and all four cars finished 1-2-3-4 in 2021's race here at "The Monster Mile."
Larson's strongest argument comes from well beyond last year's race-high 263 laps led. With lesser equipment in 2019 with Chip Ganassi Racing, Larson finished 2nd and 1st in the two events here. He's a horse for this course, and now he drives for the most dominant team at said course.
Because this week's format is so unique compared to the 10 previous events this season, it'll be hard to go all-in on drivers before gathering data from practice and qualifying. For now, just this small wager on Larson is a slight lean on the actual race winner.
Chase Briscoe to Win (+2000; 0.2 Units)
With wins at Dover and Bristol in his final full-time Xfinity Series season back in 2020, Chase Briscoe (+2000) is an interesting dart to continue his torrid run to start a breakout 2022 campaign.
Briscoe has surprised many with his speed this season. He led 20 laps at Fontana early on, and he followed that up with a win and 101 laps led at Phoenix Raceway. Most recently, Briscoe led 59 laps on dirt at Bristol.
For a driver at 20-to-1 odds, Briscoe has been towards the front quite a bit at some of his best race tracks.
His team is also familiar with having plenty of success at Dover. Stewart-Haas Racing has been captained by Kevin Harvick for years, and Harvick has seven straight top-10 finishes at Dover. No other SHR driver has been as competitive as Harvick in several years, but Briscoe has been this season. He's arguably been better.
Christopher Bell (+2500) is another multiple-time Xfinity Series winner at Dover, but Bell has yet to post a top-five average running position this season. Briscoe's been faster, so he is the longshot who sticks out in this tier.