NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Ruoff Mortgage 500

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide. For driver picks and a full preview of the event, he also discussed this weekend's race on the latest NASCAR episode of The Heat Check Daily Fantasy Podcast.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the Ruoff Mortgage 500 at ISM Raceway on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

Practice is becoming can't-miss in NASCAR daily fantasy.

Anyone last week at Las Vegas that led more than five laps was in the top-12 spots in practice. That's a pretty narrow window to choose dominant cars from should that trend hold moving forward.

ISM Raceway is a flat, 1.0-mile oval that makes passing somewhat difficult. It's not impossible; Kyle Larson went from the back to the front twice last spring. It's just not simple, and Larson was so fast that he won the fall race (and the championship) the next time around.

General Lineup Strategy

312 laps on the docket will make finding lap leaders of the utmost priority. Good thing there is next-to-no data on this track type in the next-gen car.

Though I'm not sure how many will mirror this strategy, I'm leaning on this year's Busch Light Clash at the L.A. Coliseum for a decent indication of speed. Though it was much shorter (0.25 miles), it was still a flat track with heavy braking. In the long run, that's a better profile to guess success in Phoenix than using larger, banked tracks like Fontana or Las Vegas.

While fully ready to be malleable based on practice speeds, I do have a general disposition to bumping up several drivers who have been successful at Phoenix historically. Six different drivers in the field have a Phoenix win.

Because it's difficult to pass, be pickier with targeting place differential than last week. Passing was much easier in Las Vegas. Now, several drivers still ran into tire issues -- which is still a multi-lap penalty. That makes hunting place-differential points at Phoenix more viable than in the past because of the floor those drivers provide should they have an issue.

In general, I'll want to target one-to-two drivers starting closer to the front that can lead plenty of laps, and I'll fill out my lineup with high-speed flex plays from practice that have some balance of potential finishing spot and place-differential points.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level in that order. Only drivers from Jim Sannes' win simulations above a 0% probability were included.

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 1-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is amongst the favorites to win the race, and a "1" is a total, unforeseen longshot.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 1-10 on a scale to finish in terms of potential to finish inside the top-15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

My top overall driver may be very different than many this week -- Joey Logano ($12,000). Logano won the Busch Light Clash in L.A. at the only event in this new-gen car I'm considering as a prior result worth noting. Plus, he's comfortable in Phoenix, leading at least 60 laps and finishing in the top-3 spots in three of his last four races at ISM.

Martin Truex Jr. ($13,500) is the defending winner of this event, and he led over 60 laps in both Phoenix races in 2021. That's not the concern for Truex, and it was absolutely a great sign that he had the fastest median lap time of any driver last week in Las Vegas. That's earned him a quality spot in my driver pool. I'm slightly concerned for him about this track type in this car, though, after Truex was a pedestrian 15th (of 23 cars) in the Clash.

The top driver in Jim Sannes' win simulations is Chase Elliott ($12,500), and he was strong enough at the L.A. Colesium to absolutely be worthy of consideration as well. Practice will be absolutely the deciding factor with him and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson ($14,500), personally. They haven't had dominant speed at any event in 2022 thus far, but they'll likely be popular after Larson and Alex Bowman ($8,800) pulled out wins.

Christopher Bell ($9,000) led 32 laps in Las Vegas, and that was amongst his worst track types in 2021. That's bad news for the competition. He finished ninth in both Phoenix events last year, and he only finished outside the top-10 spots once on a short, flat oval. He could absolutely lead and dominate this race at a salary that doesn't indicate that.

Practice will be a key factor in what to do with Kevin Harvick ($10,000) as well. Harvick hasn't been fast in 2022, but he's a nine-time winner at Phoenix, and his weekend in L.A. was solid enough to be interesting. Teammate Aric Almirola ($8,500) has four straight top-15 finishes at Phoenix, too. If they're fast on Saturday, I'm in.

Tyler Reddick ($9,500) has not finished better than 19th at Phoenix in four tries. He and Ross Chastain ($7,500) are early-season darlings sure to be popular from their speed at different track types, but neither has a top-10 finish in the desert. Earnhardt-Childress Racing Chevrolets were fast in the Clash, though. Their practice speed will be a crucial indicator of DFS viability.

This season started with a third-place Clash finish for Erik Jones ($6,500) that we weren't sure what to do with. Well, he's posted four total races now -- including the Clash -- of a top-15 average running position. He might just be really fast, and at $6,500, this salary may be too low. Jones has four career top-10 finishes at Phoenix amidst varying levels of equipment quality.

In addition to Jones, given the speed of all Earnhardt-Childress Racing machines in Los Angeles, I'll be watching A.J. Allmendinger ($7,000) Austin Dillon ($6,300), Daniel Suarez ($6,000), and Justin Haley ($4,500) closely as value options. That quartet has a few poor time-trial drivers that may also open up some place-differential upside despite fast speeds in practice.