Daily Fantasy NASCAR Track Preview: Hollywood Casino 400
Even though Kansas and Texas are two very different tracks, our plans of attack for NASCAR DFS are going to wind up being very similar.
Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas is 267 laps, down 67 from what the Cup Series ran in Texas. That's 6.7 fewer FanDuel points for laps led, which is enough to move the needle.
But the overall thread is the same: we still want lap-leaders, and those drivers are likely to come from the front.
Let's dig into Sunday's race from a DFS perspective and outline why this week is going to feel eerily similar to last.
Speed in the Front
Although 267 laps is a decrease, it's still a big number. Specifically, it's enough to support two lap-leaders from the front of the pack.
Last year's playoff race in Kansas used the same method for setting the starting order: playoff cars occupied the top eight spots, followed by the rest. And two playoff drivers wound up in the perfect FanDuel lineup.
|Perfect Lineup||Salary||Start||Laps Led|
|John Hunter Nemechek||$5,500||32nd||0|
Even though both Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano started within the top four spots, they both made it thanks to good finishes and a handful of laps led. This shows that the front-centric approach we rolled out last week is still viable even in a shorter race.
One minor tweak for this week, specifically, is that you may not need both lap-leaders to be playoff drivers. We saw William Byron contend for the win last week in Texas, and Byron ranks fourth in my model's projected average running position for this week. He's no longer in the playoffs and starting ninth. It's very realistic to see Byron running out front, leading laps, and making his way into the perfect lineup.
Byron's more the exception than the norm, though. Seven of the top eight drivers in my model's projected average running position are playoff drivers. This could make our default build be "two playoff drivers or Byron" per lineup rather than just whittling it down to strictly those in the Round of 8.
As for the non-lap-leaders, place-differential will be hard to come by. Of the top 16 drivers in my model, only one is starting outside the top 16. That's Alex Bowman in 25th. Bowman is the only driver in the top 21 of my model starting lower than 21st. In other words, if you want a guy who will finish well -- which you do -- most of your options will come from the front half of the field.
If that overall template feels like familiar, it should. It's pretty much the exact mindset we had entering Texas. In that one, three drivers who started inside the top 12 made the perfect lineup, and nobody started deeper than 24th. That allows us to just run it all back once again this week, shooting for lap-leaders with our studs and prioritizing good finishes -- regardless of starting position -- with everyone else.