Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500
Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race in Texas kicks off the Round of 8, a three-race stretch that includes a pair of races on 1.5-mile tracks.
At this point in the year, we know what to expect on that track type.
The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 will be the eighth race this year on a 1.5-mile track. It will also be the fifth such race to feature non-extreme tire falloff, giving us a healthy number of relevant races to look at.
So, which drivers have thrived in these circumstances thus far?
The data sheet below attempts to lay that out. It includes the four races at 1.5-mile tracks with limited tire falloff -- two in Las Vegas, one in Charlotte, and one in Kansas -- along with two races in Atlanta. Atlanta's a very different track due to the heavy tire falloff there, so it should be de-emphasized relative to the other races in the current form section.
As always, the data listed is each driver's average running position in those races. That number can help illustrate the true dominance of Kyle Larson ($14,500 on FanDuel). Wins are nice, and Larson does have two of those on 1.5-mile tracks this year. But he has two separate races with a first-place average running position where he led more than two-thirds of the race. There have been just eight first-place average running positions since the start of 2019; half of them have been Larson this year.
The 2021 All-Star Race at this track isn't listed below due to a wonky format, but we can and should factor in the results. Doing so only bolsters the appeal in Larson, who won that race, as well.
The other numbers listed are each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at NASCAR odds. The win odds are in fractional form, so Larson's being listed at 3.6 means he's +360 to win.
Current Form |
Track History |
||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Driver | FD Salary |
Win Odds |
Start | Vegas 2 |
Atlanta 2 |
Charlotte | Kansas | Atlanta 1 |
Vegas 1 |
2020 2 |
2020 1 |
2019 2 |
2019 1 |
Kyle Larson | $14,500 | 3.6 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -- | -- | 11 | 27 |
Denny Hamlin | $13,500 | 6.5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 24 | 9 |
Kyle Busch | $13,000 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
Ryan Blaney | $11,000 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
Joey Logano | $10,500 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
Chase Elliott | $12,500 | 8.5 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 35 | 9 |
Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 35 | 32 |
Martin Truex Jr. | $11,500 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 11 |
Tyler Reddick | $8,200 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 20 | 16 | 15 | -- | -- |
Chris Buescher | $7,300 | 85 | 10 | 23 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 10 | 18 | 37 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
Christopher Bell | $9,000 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 12 | 20 | 11 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 22 | -- | -- |
William Byron | $9,800 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 8 |
Matt DiBenedetto | $7,500 | 70 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 20 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 24 |
Alex Bowman | $9,200 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 21 |
Austin Dillon | $8,500 | 32 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
Michael McDowell | $5,000 | 200 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 24 | 23 | 27 | 15 |
Kurt Busch | $8,700 | 31 | 17 | 12 | 2 | 32 | 13 | 27 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
Bubba Wallace | $7,000 | 150 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 22 | 17 | 32 | 34 | 20 | 22 | 23 |
Daniel Suarez | $6,500 | 130 | 19 | 20 | 35 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 22 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 9 |
Cole Custer | $6,200 | 150 | 20 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 17 | 25 | 16 | 24 | -- | -- |
Erik Jones | $6,000 | 85 | 21 | 20 | 24 | 16 | 26 | 25 | 17 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 15 |
Aric Almirola | $8,000 | 35 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 19 | 27 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
Ryan Preece | $5,200 | 200 | 23 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 19 | 22 | 28 | 17 | 25 |
Kevin Harvick | $10,000 | 17 | 24 | 9 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
Ross Chastain | $7,700 | 55 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 22 | -- | -- | 34 | 31 |
Chase Briscoe | $6,700 | 130 | 26 | 16 | 17 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 24 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,700 | 170 | 27 | 21 | 35 | 12 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 35 | 16 |
Anthony Alfredo | $4,000 | 200 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 22 | 24 | 28 | 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Corey LaJoie | $4,500 | 200 | 29 | 29 | 22 | 22 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 24 | 23 | 37 | 31 |
Quin Houff | $3,500 | 200 | 30 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 36 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 32 | 32 | -- |
Ryan Newman | $5,500 | 170 | 31 | 20 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 14 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 17 | 12 |
Justin Haley | $4,000 | 200 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 31 | 29 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Josh Bilicki | $2,500 | 200 | 33 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 31 | 37 | 32 | -- |
Cody Ware | $3,000 | 200 | 34 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 35 | 33 | 33 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
B.J. McLeod | $2,000 | 200 | 35 | 33 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 30 | -- | 37 | -- | 33 |
Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 200 | 36 | 35 | 32 | 34 | 34 | -- | 32 | 31 | -- | 32 | 34 |
Joey Gase | $2,000 | 200 | 37 | 37 | -- | -- | 36 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 37 | -- | -- |
David Starr | $2,000 | 200 | 38 | -- | -- | 37 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Timmy Hill | $2,000 | 200 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 37 | 37 | 31 | 37 | 36 | 38 |
Larson's +360 for a reason, and you can justify betting him at that number. The other big threats to lead laps seem to be Denny Hamlin ($13,500), Kyle Busch ($13,000), and Ryan Blaney ($11,000).
All three of those drivers have a win on a 1.5-mile track this year. Busch has finished top-five in all but one of seven races, and Hamlin got the playoff win in Las Vegas. Even though it will strap you for salary, jamming in two of Larson, Hamlin, and Busch is desirable here.
Using Blaney, instead, gives you a bit more balance. He beat out Larson in Atlanta and has strong history in Texas. He led 150 laps here last year and led 148 back in 2017 while he still drove for Wood Brothers Racing. In a vacuum, Hamlin and Busch grade out better, but Blaney's salary keeps him firmly in the rotation for potential dominators at the top of the pool.
The other route for saving salary could be to punt with someone like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,700). Stenhouse is starting back in 27th, which gives him some place-differential upside. He also has had a top-16 average running position in 4 of 7 races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, turning that into 4 top-13 finishes. He's earns the nickname "Wrecky," so the risks here are obvious, but the flexibility Stenhouse lends you makes the poor floor worthwhile.