Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Federated Auto Parts 400
Richmond may be a unique track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, but we still know what to expect.
Of the four short, flat tracks the Cup Series visits, Richmond is the only one to feature heavy tire falloff. It also has sweeping corners that can take a lifetime to master.
That means we don't have a direct comp to Richmond elsewhere on the schedule. But blending together tracks with similarities can at least point us in the right direction in predicting who will be fast.
Specifically, we want to blend together flat tracks that use the 750-horsepower package with tracks in that package with heavy tire falloff. Doing so expands our sample to seven races and should point us in the right direction.
Those seven races are in this week's data sheet with six in the current form section and the other being the 2021 race at Richmond. Nashville, Phoenix, Martinsville, and New Hampshire are the other flat tracks in this package, and Darlington is the one with heavy tire falloff. That makes last week's race extra interesting as it has that overlap and occurred during the playoffs.
As always, the data listed is each driver's average running position rather than where they finished. Back in May, Kevin Harvick ($11,000 on FanDuel) was having a solid race. He was running 7th with 20 laps to go when he cut a tire and crashed, leading to a 24th-place finish. His seventh-place average running position is a much better representation of the speed he had there.
The other data listed is each driver's starting spot, FanDuel salary, and win odds at NASCAR odds. The win odds are in fractional form, so Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000) being listed at 5.5 means he's +550 to win.
|Martin Truex Jr.||$14,000||5.5||3||11||20||19||1||4||6||4||6||2||2|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$7,000||130||23||18||16||6||23||19||12||18||18||14||17|
One driver whose appeal will be understated by the sheet is Truex. He has three straight average running positions outside the top 10 on these tracks, but that's largely due to rough luck. He spun in the rain in New Hampshire, and in Darlington, he worked his way through the pack several times and still had a shot to win. Truex is right alongside Denny Hamlin ($13,500) as the highest-ranked driver for the race.
Two mid-range plays who have feasted on our list of relevant tracks are Harvick and Christopher Bell ($10,000). Harvick ranks third in aggregate average running position across these seven races, trailing just Hamlin and Ryan Blaney ($9,500). In the most recent race at a short, flat track, Harvick led 66 laps, had a fourth-place average running position, and finished sixth. The finish is disappointing relative to the speed, but Harvick has legit winning upside at a middling salary.
Bell has a pair of top-five finishes on the short, flat tracks, including one right here in Richmond. He was fourth in that race, and he followed it up with a runner-up finish in New Hampshire. Bell dominated tracks like this in the Xfinity Series, including three wins in five races at Richmond. He'll start 10th but ranks 8th in my model's projected average running position, meaning Bell could get you some low-salaried laps led and a good finish.
Among the non-playoff drivers, it's obvious we want to build around Ross Chastain ($8,300). He's the only non-playoff driver ranked in the top 16 of projected average running position, sitting 14th in that category. He has had a top-10 mark in 3 straight oval races using the 750-horsepower package, and he has cashed those in with a pair of top-5 finishes. Chastain's a core play once again.