NASCAR Betting Guide: Coke Zero Sugar 400
The ghost of Michael McDowell is haunting the oddsboard for Saturday's Coke Zero Sugar 400.
McDowell won February's Daytona 500 at +7000 outright odds. He had gotten some buzz that week as a longshot, so it likely wasn't a fun time doling out payouts.
They've nipped that in the bud this week. Most of the drivers in cars faster than a tricycle have odds of +5500 or shorter. McDowell, himself, is +3500 at NASCAR odds.
It makes it hard to find quality value in outrights this week. With that said, though, there are a couple of places where we can find advantages as long as we're willing to take risks on guys whose finishes on these tracks haven't been super flattering.
Kyle Busch to Win (+1900)
Only two drivers are showing more than half a percentage point of value in my simulations this week, and only one guy tops a full percentage point. That's Kyle Busch.
Simply put, my numbers adore him. He ranks second in aggregate average running position across the past five Daytona races, trailing only Joey Logano (+1400). Busch has had a top-10 average running position in 6 of 10 pack races since the start of 2019.
That just hasn't translated into good results, outside of a runner-up in the 2019 Daytona 500. Busch has crashed out of three of the past four pack races and has just two top-10s in that aforementioned 10-race sample.
A lot of those poor finishes were not Busch's fault. Busch was leading with nine laps left last year when Tyler Reddick passed him and squeezed him into the wall, causing a big wreck.
That wasn't Busch's fault, and we wouldn't be getting him at this number had he closed that race out.
Busch is going to have speed, he has skills on this track type, and he'll likely have teammates at the front willing to work with him late. In a week where there's not much value to be had, Busch is the glaring exception.
Tyler Reddick to Win (+3500)
Reddick was in position to cause that wreck last year only because he had taken the lead late. He made a big mistake there, but his track record in lower series shows it was no fluke that he was at the front.
Reddick is a two-time Daytona winner, once in the Xfinity Series and once in the Camping World Truck Series. The Truck Series win came during his age-19 season.
He hasn't shown the same capabilities in the Cup Series yet with four wrecks in four Daytona races to open his career. But it's a four-race sample on a hyper-volatile track type, so that's far from proof that he can't get the job done.
Reddick ranks 13th in my model, but he has the 20th-highest win odds for the race. My simulations have him winning 3.5% of the time, up a bit from his implied odds at 2.8%. We saw William Byron win at Daytona to lock down a playoff spot last year when he could have gotten in on points. Reddick's in the same position this week, and the sims say we could see history repeat itself on Saturday night.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to Win Group Three (+310)
Betting Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to win this group is as much about getting exposure to Stenhouse as it is fading Austin Dillon.
Unless Reddick has issues early, Dillon needs a win Saturday to make the playoffs. It seems bettors are riding that narrative hard as Dillon is +1800 to win. The implied odds there are 5.3%, and my simulations have him winning 3.3% of the time. He's overvalued from a betting perspective.
Those outright odds carry into this group where Dillon is +190 to win. The interesting component is that Stenhouse and Matt DiBenedetto in this group are also in a win-and-in position. If we're going to apply the narrative to Dillon, we should apply it to them, too.
Stenhouse is a tremendous pack racer, having wins in both Daytona and Talladega during his career. Most of his success has come in Talladega as the narrow corners in Daytona aren't as conducive to his aggressive style. But Stenhouse has the highest win odds in my simulations of anybody in this group (3.8%), and his volatility is baked into the number to win this group. That makes Stenhouse a fun way to take advantage of Dillon's being overvalued.
