Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Buschy McBusch Race 400

Kyle Larson has had blazing speed the first three races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, making him an elite option for DFS on Sunday. What other data should we note for Kansas?

This week is a blessing for NASCAR DFS. Rather than leaning on strategy, we get to just pick the best drivers. Hallelujah.

As discussed in the track preview, the starting grid has potential winners at the front, in the middle, and in the back. Those at the front have upside via laps led with 267 laps to be run. Those in the middle and the back can scoop place-differential, and with the way this package plays out, they're not omitted from win consideration, either.

We have multiple routes to upside here, and we have upper-tier options who fit each route. You just get to pick who you like best. Giddy up.

To do so, you'll want to lean heavily on what we've seen in this 550-horsepower package this season. This will be the fourth race at a non-drafting oval to use the 550-horsepower package, giving us a decent sample to look at.

Those three races are the first three listed in the data sheet below: Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Homestead. Looking at those races will tell us how drivers have performed in this rules package with their current teams, and it'll account for any gains teams may have made over the offseason.

The rest of the current form section is the final three non-drafting and non-Kansas races using the 550-horsepower package last year. This means we will have drivers working for different teams, so be wary of over-emphasizing the data for Bubba Wallace ($6,500 on FanDuel), Daniel Suarez ($5,800), and Ross Chastain ($5,500). They've all gotten equipment upgrades since that time, and Erik Jones ($7,000) got a massive equipment downgrade. This also lowers the value in track history data for each of these drivers.

As always, the data listed is each driver's average running position rather than their finish. Ryan Blaney ($10,000) finished 21st and 20th in the fall of 2019 and spring of 2020, respectively, which isn't what you want out of a mid-range play. However, his top-seven average running position in both races showed he had speed. If you had judged him based on his finishes, you'd have been down on him last fall when he finished seventh and had a fifth-place average running position.

The other data listed is each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Denny Hamlin ($14,000) being listed at 5 means he's +500 to win.

Brad Keselowski$12,50081204810141754139
William Byron$9,5001627641215101215816
Michael McDowell$5,000200320181324182322242727
Kevin Harvick$11,0009419189179636138
Matt DiBenedetto$8,50050591120982115211921
Austin Dillon$8,0005069161110131315232115
Ryan Blaney$10,000873618682256720
Christopher Bell$9,000258219191418251319----
Kyle Busch$10,50010971215798126711
Cole Custer$7,200100101725141617171616----
Tyler Reddick$7,80050113020181629181812--16
Ryan Preece$4,5002501225192522252323272226
Bubba Wallace$6,5001251317322134252920272128
Ryan Newman$6,0001501414201221202022243819
Martin Truex Jr.$13,000615975473104619
Chris Buescher$6,300150161018103718212327189
Chase Elliott$11,500917201213134551266
Aric Almirola$7,50066181927212215131681814
Chase Briscoe$5,20020019252426--------------
Denny Hamlin$14,0005206413144593520
Daniel Suarez$5,8001502115222127302830251020
Anthony Alfredo$3,50050022282328--------------
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$6,800100231415161923182035186
Ross Chastain$5,50020024192218----32----3031
Alex Bowman$9,200182551110868712186
Corey LaJoie$4,0005002628283124243125252826
Erik Jones$7,000125272517261515919987
Kurt Busch$8,700332827147141381811148
Joey Logano$12,000929131114819106201321
B.J. McLeod$3,00075030353036--------39----
Justin Haley$2,00050031312929--------------
Kyle Larson$13,500632135----------812
Cody Ware$2,50050033333333------------40
Quin Houff$3,000750343234343535343432--36
Joey Gase$2,000500353635--35363639343838
Garrett Smithley$2,00050036--323131------3236--
Josh Bilicki$2,50050037383634313634363237--
Austin Cindric$6,2002003824------------------
Matt Mills$2,00050039--------------------

If we're going to emphasize the three similar races in 2021, it's clear that Kyle Larson ($13,500) deserves to be the chalk this weekend.

Larson has had a top-five average running position in all three races, and he converted one of those into a win. Larson has somehow led 43.9% of the laps in those races, and his 377 laps led are 248 more than any other driver. Larson's low starting spot ensures he'll be the most popular driver in the field, but sometimes chalk is chalk for a reason. He's the best option by a wide margin.

Larson has the best win odds in my simulations. The next three -- Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. ($13,000), and Chase Elliott ($11,500) -- all start from 15th to 20th. Truex has a top-nine average running position in all three relevant races this year, and Hamlin has had a top-six mark twice. The appeal there should be obvious.

Elliott's average running positions have lagged a bit. That's in part due to an engine failure in Atlanta, though, and the team just hasn't been able to put together a full race yet in 2021. With that said, they're the defending champs, and their teammates have had massive speed in this package. We should be high on Elliott despite the slow start.

Speaking of teammates, the other two Hendrick drivers beyond Elliott and Larson are William Byron ($9,500) and Alex Bowman ($9,200). Both are appealing for different reasons.

Byron's starting on the outside pole, meaning he has easy access to laps led. He won in Homestead, which has plenty of similarities to Kansas, and he has had a top-seven average running position in all three of our relevant races. He's at 6.1% to win in my simulations, so Byron fits as a potential contrarian tournament option.

The reason he could be contrarian is because Bowman fits the default build well starting back in 25th. Bowman is firmly in play for cash games, though, with a top-11 average running position in all three relevant races. Bowman's the cash-game play, but both he and Byron have appeal for tournaments.