Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Hollywood Casino 400
We know who's going to be fast on Sunday. We just have to piece it all together and decide who will stand out for daily fantasy NASCAR.
This week's Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas will be the 10th race of the season at a 1.5-mile track, and it'll be the sixth such race at a track with moderate banking. We've hit the data jackpot.
With no practice sessions due to COVID-19, it can sometimes feel like we're taking stabs in guessing who will run up front. Here, we've got gobs of signals telling us who will push for wins and top-10s. Those are the drivers we want to focus on in daily fantasy.
The data necessary to decide that is below. The current form section includes the five most recent races at 1.5-mile tracks (excluding Kansas) and the early-season race in Las Vegas.
The reason I included the early-season race in Las Vegas even though it was before the COVID layoff is that it's one of those moderately banked, 1.5-mile tracks. We'll get better data from that than looking at more recent races in Charlotte, which has higher banking.
This also means we should put a ton of weight in the second Las Vegas race. Not only is it a similar track, but it happened during the playoffs. It will encapsulate which drivers have made gains during the season. It's the best signal we'll have for this weekend.
We've also got a semi-recent race at this same track. That's the 2020 race in the track history section, which took place in July. That's the second most recent race at a 1.5-mile track. Combining that with what we saw in Las Vegas should give us a good read on the likely contenders.
As always, the data included here is each driver's average running position rather than their finish. In Las Vegas, a caution came out late in the race during green-flag pit stops. Some of the contenders had already pitted, so it pinned them a lap down. That helped contribute to a poor finish by Chase Elliott ($13,000), whose fourth-place average running position is a better representation of his speed than his 22nd-place finish.
The other data included is each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are presented in fractional form, so Denny Hamlin ($13,500) being listed at 4.2 means he's +420 to win.
|Current Form||Track History|
|Martin Truex Jr.||$12,500||6||5||7||17||7||11||3||8||4||6||19|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$6,300||200||23||23||24||25||23||14||15||35||18||6|
|John Hunter Nemechek||$5,500||200||32||19||24||28||20||25||20||18||--||--|
As mentioned in this week's track preview, you'll likely want two drivers starting in the top eight in most lineups. Those are the drivers left in the playoffs and, thus, the ones most likely to win the race. You can use this data to decide who stands out most in that group.
For value plays, we just want speed. Based on what we see above, Matt DiBenedetto ($8,500) seems like a top-notch cash-game and tournament option.
DiBenedetto had top-eight average running positions in both Las Vegas and Kentucky, an elite-level mark for someone in his salary tier. But he also cashed those in with top-three finishes in both races, and he was also runner-up in the first Las Vegas race. DiBenedetto belongs in our core.
This can also show why Ryan Blaney ($11,400) and Kyle Busch ($11,200) are the potential exceptions to our playoff-centric mindset. Both have had tons of speed on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and could realistically push out a good finish. There is opportunity cost tied to them, so we'll want to be careful not to go overboard, but without considering the broader implications, both guys fit the process well.