Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Bank of America ROVAL 400

Ryan Blaney won the first race at the Charlotte roval and is starting back in 24th on Sunday. What else should we know before setting lineups for NASCAR DFS?

In this week's track preview, we mentioned the ideal strategy was to look for place-differential candidates without forcing the issue.

The recommendation was looking at the starting order from back to front, seeing if there were any fast drivers starting further back, and plugging them in if you could find them. In such a short race, the best path to upside is via place-differential. But we also need finishing points, so we can't just plug dudes in willy nilly because they're starting deep in the pack.

Here's the data you'll need to help make those decisions.

The table below is sorted by starting position with those starting at the front listed at the top. They're still in play for sure because of the value of finishing points. But if you can find drivers with speed starting further back, they're going to be enticing.

The way you can make that determination is by digging into both track history and current form.

The track history section this week is a bit of a lie because it does include two races at other tracks. Those were at Watkins Glen and Sonoma in 2019. There have been just two races at the Charlotte roval, so the sample there is slim. Given the unique nature of road courses, it made more sense to fudge the definition than stick with just two races.

The current form section includes just one road-course race. The schedule reshuffling due to COVID lopped both Watkins Glen and Sonoma off the schedule in 2020, meaning the only road-course race they've run was the Daytona roval in August. That's going to be a key signal for us as it's the only road-course data we have on each driver with their current team.

We shouldn't just ignore form, though. At the Daytona roval, the current form section of my model had a better correlation to each driver's average running position than their history on road courses. Equipment matters at these tracks, too, so if they've been lacking juice recently, they might be tough to justify.

The tracks included in the current form section (outside of the Daytona roval) are the past five that included off-throttle time. Braking is a legitimate skill in the Cup Series, and it'll give us a better indication of who will be fast on Sunday than looking at races at places like Las Vegas or Talladega.

As always, the numbers in the current form and track history sections are each driver's average running position rather than their finish. Martin Truex Jr. ($13,200) finished 14th in the 2018 Charlotte roval race, which seems pretty lackluster. But he was leading entering the final turn before crashing, so his eighth-place average running position -- tied for best in that race -- is a better indication of his speed than where he finished.

The other data included are each driver's FanDuel salary and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Chase Elliott ($13,500) being listed at 2.6 means he's +260 to win.

Denny Hamlin$12,5007.511712512352518510
Chase Elliott$13,5002.624753911379115
Brad Keselowski$11,600173183178615816818
Kevin Harvick$13,000743863818310811
Alex Bowman$11,000265138810242320151313
Austin Dillon$6,4001306146131211--21262924
Martin Truex Jr.$13,2007721637489833
Joey Logano$11,8001987310471215142114
Kyle Busch$10,00017959818820229154
Kurt Busch$10,300321013108123992191114
Clint Bowyer$11,300191110111111598141515
Aric Almirola$9,50055121091310171612211217
William Byron$9,7005513251910620136171811
Erik Jones$8,0005514122092116133625714
Ryan Newman$6,8001301526202022192419242412
Tyler Reddick$8,7007016101618161423--------
Ty Dillon$5,0002001722262625212221232626
Ryan Preece$4,5002001819232324232021--2327
John Hunter Nemechek$4,50020019202828222627--------
Matt DiBenedetto$9,300552014182112171514251210
Chris Buescher$7,000702116242116171617231515
Brennan Poole$4,00020022--3230303131--------
Matt Kenseth$6,00013023181318182122--------
Ryan Blaney$12,0001324141922514141312126
Quin Houff$3,00020025313334343535--------
Bubba Wallace$5,5002002617242920222026272726
Timmy Hill$3,000200273437383535303438----
Cole Custer$7,30013028211217101422--------
Joey Gase$3,000200293637364037----------
Jimmie Johnson$10,60032301529911971181512
Michael McDowell$9,000553120252325231114191523
Corey LaJoie$3,5002003229253126272631--3229
J.J. Yeley$3,000200333434323532343232--38
Daniel Suarez$4,0002003427292827292611212117
Christopher Bell$7,6007035141825232115--------
Gray Gaulding$3,0002003630------------------
James Davison$5,00013037343638----31--------
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$6,6002003839181837121817211819

As we scroll up from the bottom, two drivers who stand out with both good form and good speed on road courses are Ryan Blaney ($12,000) and Jimmie Johnson ($10,300).

As mentioned earlier, Truex got wrecked in the final turn of the 2018 race at Charlotte. It was Johnson who wrecked him, hurting their finishes. The guy who benefited? It was Blaney, who came up from the third spot to get the win. It's one of three top-fives for him in the past seven road-course races. With Blaney starting 24th and Johnson in 30th, they're both cash-game considerations.

The data also makes it clear that Truex and Elliott are the cars to beat here, which is why we have to be careful we don't just go overboard on place-differential options. The winning driver will be in the perfect lineup, and the odds it's one of those two are pretty high. So dig into the drivers starting further back and see if they have the speed to finish well, but make sure you get enough exposure to these two studs to benefit if they go off.