Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Toyota 500K

The Cup Series returns to Darlington Wednesday for the second time in four days. Which data should we note before filling out NASCAR DFS lineups?

Sunday was fun. Let's do it again, shall we?

The NASCAR Cup Series will do something we haven't seen in a long time on Wednesday: they'll run a second consecutive race at the same track with just a couple of days in between. We'd be wise to heed the signals of what we saw on Sunday.

Normally, when we're looking at track history, we have to dig back several years to get relevant data. For Sunday's Darlington race, our three-race sample at the track was from 2017 through 2019. As mentioned in last week's data piece, the 2017 data included only 23 drivers who were also in Sunday's race and only 10 drivers who were still with the same teams they drove for then.

Now, we get to see every driver with the same team, and our three-race sample goes back to just 2018. That's a massive, massive upgrade to our level of confidence.

We do need to proceed with a bit of caution, though. Some drivers with ponies under the hood on Sunday may not have finished well, which means we shouldn't look at just finishing positions when determining whom we should expect to perform well on Wednesday.

The three main drivers who stick out there are Kyle Busch ($13,000), Jimmie Johnson ($10,000), and William Byron ($9,000). Busch had an issue under green-flag conditions late and finished 26th. Johnson wrecked while leading in the opening stage, and his wreck allowed Byron to win that stage. Byron then proceeded to wreck in the second stage. Both Johnson and Byron were contending for the win but will now start in the back.

From a DFS perspective, that's great for us. As mentioned in the Darlington track preview, because Wednesday's race is so short, we are incentivized to use drivers starting further back due to the place-differential upside they carry. Those three give us obvious avenues for that upside, as do the drivers who finished best on Sunday with the top 20 finishers being inverted for the starting order.

With the incentive to stack the back, the data table below is sorted by where the drivers will start. If you find a driver with numbers you like who is starting in the back, they're probably going to be an elite DFS option.

As a reminder, all race-level data is the average running position the driver posted in that specific race (for an explanation on why, check out last week's data piece). When you see that Kevin Harvick ($13,200) has a "2" in his column for the 2020 Darlington race, it means his average running position on Sunday was second.

All betting odds referenced are as of Monday morning at FanDuel Sportsbook. Ross Chastain ($6,400) and Gray Gaulding ($4,500) are on the entry list for the race and are thus in the FanDuel player pool, but they did not race on Sunday, so they will be listed at the bottom. Chastain has said he will not be in the field despite being on the entry list.

Current Form Track History
DriverFD PriceWin OddsStartPhoenixFontanaVegasDaytonaHomesteadTexas202020192018
Ryan Preece$4,500+2000012328232127171923--
Ty Dillon$5,000+200002212520152821242324
Joey Logano$12,200+8503610498912165
Clint Bowyer$8,400+320041118162881391015
Ryan Blaney$10,400+18005313412813171419
Ryan Newman$7,000+65006------131417162111
Matt DiBenedetto$7,800+50007111214162214131432
Brad Keselowski$12,000+85086911111735466
Aric Almirola$8,000+450099101516204132316
Austin Dillon$6,500+850010311813161014171616
Matt Kenseth$7,200+300011------------14--23
John Hunter Nemechek$5,000+140001220252023272318----
Erik Jones$9,800+160013151322231071067
Tyler Reddick$6,700+34001414141818----13----
Martin Truex Jr.$11,500+85015119822313141610
Denny Hamlin$12,500+80016241021136246128
Chase Elliott$11,700+900177871116359127
Kurt Busch$9,400+16001814917171810969
Alex Bowman$10,600+75019132814161031325
Kevin Harvick$13,200+35020311320462107
Bubba Wallace$5,500+2000021272722262922212529
Cole Custer$6,800+110002214212724----20----
Michael McDowell$5,000+2000023252236232527242924
Christopher Bell$6,000+120002420332719----20----
Daniel Suarez$4,000+1800025272832--167281326
Kyle Busch$13,000+75026691417291859
Brennan Poole$4,000+200002732323032----30----
Joey Gase$4,000+200003032343434----333638
Corey LaJoie$4,000+2000031242925263237263531
Chris Buescher$7,300+1200032221719131917261314
Timmy Hill$4,000+200003338373626393634--37
William Byron$9,000+16003513148321612241013
Quin Houff$4,000+200003634353333--3237----
Garrett Smithley$4,000+2000037353537----323637--
Jimmie Johnson$10,000+180038134101392027731
B.J. McLeod$4,000+2000039------3435--393636
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$6,400+1800040222215112235402819
Ross Chastain$6,400+20000 181917153734--3032
Gray Gaulding$4,500+20000 ------------------

Ideally, this should make it easier to pinpoint the building blocks for Wednesday's race. Despite starting in the back, Johnson, Byron, and Busch all have top-end numbers, and you can see where those who finished high on Sunday pop up in the middle of the pack, as well. Find drivers who are likely to finish better than they're starting, lock them in, and build things out from there.