NASCAR Betting Guide: Ford EcoBoost 400

Despite not being among the final four combatants, Joey Logano is capable of taking the checkered flag on Sunday. Who else is worth betting on?

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy: there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 13 drivers have won a race this season, and 7 of them have won more than once. In short, there is a very small pool of drivers to put into a portfolio realistically, but underdogs can always breakthrough on small money tickets.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at this track, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race. If you're playing DFS, you can dig into our helper for the race.

Here's where to put smart money for the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami.

At the Top

Martin Truex Jr. (+300) - If I had to take my guess at who was the most likely winner here, it would be Martin Truex Jr. The starting positions don't really matter that much to me, as it is pretty simple to pass here at Miami, even more so in this current package. There are a few things that draw me to Martin Truex more so than any other of these top four drivers. For starters, he has the second-highest driver rating in the last four races. Second, he has the best driver rating of any driver in the field at the steep tracks this season. Third, he currently has the best long-run car of any of these championship for drivers, and it's not even close, as he finished second practice with a 15-lap average of 33.29. For comparison, Denny Hamlin had the next highest clip of the championship four drivers at 33.42. There's a good chance that Martin Truex Jr wins yet again here in Miami.

Denny Hamlin (+310) - If Truex doesn't win, Denny Hamlin is the next most likely driver to do so. Hamlin is coming into this race with a 119.2 driver rating across his last four events, which is the highest of any driver in the field, and, as I mentioned before, he has the second-fastest long run car of the championship drivers. The momentum he has and how well he performed in practice (even if it is a limited amount of practice) points to him being in contention for a win on Sunday.

Value Spots

Joey Logano (+1500) - You don't have to look further than Friday night's truck race to realize that you do not have to be a part of the Championship Four in order to give yourself a chance of winning a race in Miami. Joey Logano fits the bill of a non-Final Four driver who can win. Winning here in Miami last season was how he was able to win the 2018 championship, but if we want to look toward this season and other recent statistics, those are in his favor, as well. For example, Logano has a 101.2 driver rating in his last four races, which is seventh overall in the field. Of course, Logano has track history on his side with a driver rating of 102.9 in eight career races here. We can also look at his steep track performances this season, where he has a 97.8 driver rating, sixth-best in the field. There is a legitimate argument for Logano winning this race, making him a very strong value at +1500.

Ryan Blaney (+4500) - Penske teammate Ryan Blaney is also a very strong value at +4500. His recent performances have been as strong as anyone's in the field, coming into this race with a 103.5 driver rating over his last four, the fifth-best clip in the field. The final practice numbers for Blaney are very strong in both short and long runs, clocking in the fifth-best five-lap average and the third-best 15-lap average. Things are looking pretty good for Blaney when it comes to potentially winning this race, and the odds are appealing.

Long Shot

William Byron (+5000) - While +5000 doesn't seem like much of a long shot, just taking a look at the other drivers who have worse odds than him, this is about as good as you're going to get. However, William Byron checks some boxes. Again, he's another driver with strong momentum coming into this event, with a driver rating of 96.5 in his last four races, the seventh-best clip in the field. We can look at the strong long-run numbers he has this week, running the second-fastest 15-lap average, behind only Truex. Taking any one of the last three bets, including this one, will provide you with very strong value in the betting market.