NASCAR Betting Guide for the South Point 400

Brad Keselowski has thrived at Vegas, notching eight straight top-10 finishes here. Should you bet on him to win this weekend?

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy: there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 11 drivers have won a race this season, and 7 of them have won more than once. In short, there is a very small pool of drivers to realistically put into a portfolio, but the underdogs can always breakthrough on small money tickets. Last week in Indianapolis, Kevin Harvick had the third shortest odds at +575 and cashed in a dominant win from the pole.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at this track, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

Here's where to put smart money for the South Point 400.

At the Top

Brad Keselowski (+570): When it comes to which driver reigns supreme at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the conversation stops and starts with Brad Keselowski. Kes has eight straight top-10 finishes in Sin City, and three of those are wins. Last fall, in LVMS's first playoff-opening race, Keselowski led 75 laps in a convincing win. He sees a huge shrinkage in his odds from the past few weeks and is most definitely a rightful co-favorite as the "horse for the course."

Martin Truex Jr (+680): While Keselowski captured the checkered flag here last fall, Martin Truex Jr led the most laps in that one with 95. In fact, he has led 252 laps in the four races here, including a dominant 2017 win. While Truex was a benign eighth in the spring race at Vegas, he dominated in May at a 1.5-mile track in Charlotte, so he has flashed speed on this layout of asphalt. Truex is a part of a three-leg portfolio of strong histories at Las Vegas and should require attention at any betting window.

Joey Logano (+720): Logano is not to be left out as the winner last time the Monster Energy Cup Series was in Las Vegas. He dominated the late portion of the race, leading 86 laps and holding off Keselowski. Joey is also coming off a bounce-back weekend at Indianapolis, where he finished second after failing to record a top-10 finish in the previous five races. The 2018 champion will look to start his title defense at one his strongest tracks.

Value Spot

Kyle Larson (+1000): Kyle Larson crashed at Indianapolis last week but was running well on his way to a sixth straight top 10. Larson is heating up at the right time, and he finished second the last time the Cup Series was on a 1.5-mile track in July at Chicago. He has top-five showings in three of the last four in Sin City, as well. Larson has not won a points race in an incredibly long time, the last being nearly two full years ago in September 2017. Despite that, the talented California driver made the playoffs and is always a threat to heat up at any time to become the 12th winner this season.

Long Shot

Alex Bowman (+3300): When Kyle Larson finished second at Chicago in July, Alex Bowman won that race, leading 88 laps on his way to victory in number-88 car. Odds of 33-to-1 are an extremely high marker for the last winner at a sister track. Bowman's record at Las Vegas is spotty, with his best finish an 11th-place effort, but that was well before Bowman had considerable speed at 1.5-mile tracks. Bowman, by way of that Chicago win, makes his playoff debut Sunday and would be a tremendous surprise in victory lane, but if he were to do so, he would solidify himself as a title contender with three more 1.5-mile tracks after this -- one in each round of the playoffs.

Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.