NASCAR Betting Guide for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy: there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 10 drivers have won a race this season, and 7 of them have won more than once. In short, there is a very small pool of drivers to realistically put into a portfolio, but the underdogs can always breakthrough on small money tickets. Last week, Kevin Harvick rebounded from early trouble to cash as a 5-1 co-favorite in Michigan.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at this track, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

Here's where to put smart money for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race:

At the Top

Kyle Busch (+195): Busch is a massive NASCAR favorite at +195, and for absolutely good reason. He has won 3 of the last 4 races at Bristol, and the exception, in last year's "Night Race" was a wild ride. An early crash deeper in the field found Busch three laps down, and he actually clawed his way back onto the lead lap, even passing the leader at one point, before crashing again. That lone stain on his recent resume may actually be the most impressive marker, and it's why Busch is a justified heavy favorite.

Kevin Harvick (+750): Harvick shares the same odds as Joey Logano (+750), who dominated the spring race before ceding early, but Harvick had possibly an even more impressive run back in March. Because of multiple inspection violations, he had to start the race with a pass-through penalty, then cut a tire down, and was 4 laps down at one point to Logano. Harvick made all four of those laps up and finished on the lead lap in what appears to otherwise be a non-spectacular 13th. Before that race, Harvick had seven straight Top 10s at this 0.5-mile oval, and will be a force again Sunday should he just not start with total disaster again.

Value Spots

Kyle Larson (+900): Larson is usually a far higher tier play than this, closer to 15-1, but he sees a steep increase on the odds board at one of his favorite race tracks. Larson just had a bad day in the Spring, cutting a tire early, but before that, he accrued four straight Top 10s at Bristol and led a combined 491 laps in those races. It will be important to watch Larson's speed progress throughout the weekend, but as he searches for his first win to lock him officially into the playoffs, Bristol is as good a bet as any.

Kurt Busch (+1800): Busch possesses my personal favorite odds on the board, and it is a little puzzling as to why he still resides in a normal place this weekend. Kurt is the defending winner of this race a year ago and had a chance to knock his brother out of the way back in March to go back to back. Although many were before a track reconfiguration, Kurt has still won at this track six times and is Larson's teammate, another excellent Bristol racer, and the combined notebook could help Chip Ganassi Racing win its second race of the year.

Long Shot

Jimmie Johnson (+3600): There was a time when Johnson, while dominating the larger tracks with the best team in the sport, dreaded coming to Bristol. Those days are long gone for Jimmie, who actually holds tremendous metrics at Bristol. His 6.80 average finish in the last six races at BMS is first among active drivers. He has four Top 10s and an 11th mixed in there as well. Johnson is on the playoff bubble with full incentive to stay toward the front and avoid getting lapped or wrecked, and a breakthrough win would be season-defining for the 7-time champion. In this odds tier, Johnson is the most realistic contender to do just that.

Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.