NASCAR Betting Guide for the Consumers Energy 400

It was all smiles for Joey Logano back in June as he dominated the Michigan race. Starting ninth on Sunday, is he a good bet to win this season's second Michigan event?

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy: there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 12 drivers won a race last season, and only six won more than a single time in 2018. Last week in Watkins Glen, Chase Elliott dominated and cashed at 10-1 from the pole for his second win of the season. Worth noting, Elliott's odds dropped considerably after winning the pole on Saturday, so placing that bet off his track history before the race weekend started could have seen him as high as 16-1 in some spots.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at this track, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

Here's where to put smart money for the Consumers Energy 400.

At the Top

Joey Logano (+550): This betting preview amazingly does not lead with four-time winners and event favorites Kyle Busch or Martin Truex Jr, but instead we'll start with two-time 2019 winner Joey Logano. Why? Joey Logano absolutely dominated the June event here at MIS, leading 163 of 203 laps and winning the event. Logano has three Michigan wins, and will look to add a fourth. He starts 9th to defend his crown and should be a contender for another win.

Brad Keselowski (+550): The argument to bet Brad is two-fold. Keselowski has made no secrets that he has long craved a win at his home racetrack. The Rochester Hills native has a driver rating over 100.0 in his last four starts at Michigan, but he has yet to crack victory lane despite three top-10 efforts. Keselowski has the same equipment as June's dominant car Logano, and the extra motivation might be manifesting itself in a special weekend for Keselowski, who will start from the pole Sunday.

Value Spots

Kyle Larson (+1600): Kyle Larson won all three races from August 2016 to August 2017 held at MIS, but he has yet to crack the top 10 since. Larson is heating up, with top-10 showings in three of his last four, which doesn't even include a second at Chicagoland in June. All of that presents as good value at 16-1. Larson's biggest issue in June was his inability to pass all the way from a starting spot of 22nd, but the added PJ1 compound to other lanes on the track can hopefully make it easier for Larson from 17th.

Erik Jones (+1800): Jones is the other native of the Great Lake State as he hails from Byron, Michigan. Jones, with the threat of not making the playoffs being very real earlier this summer, has done nothing but rattle off solid finishes for his Gibbs team. Jones has four straight top-five showings, with top-10s in six of his last seven. Getting a driver who has been around the front that much at 18-1 is amazing value -- considering the random luck will likely fall his way at some point. Maybe it will be at his home track, despite posting a sluggish 16th in qualifying.

Long Shot

Alex Bowman (+4000): When examining some of the longer odds, Bowman has the best looking car -- by far. He was fourth in first practice and will start fourth. Bowman finished 10th in the June race here, as well. At 40-1, Bowman has put it together once as one of the nine winners already so far in 2019, and he appears to at least possess the speed to do it again. Track position should be once again key Sunday, so look for him to stay up front for a while should he avoid any mistakes.

Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.