NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
A late caution produced a wild finish at Kentucky Speedway, with the Busch brothers door-to-door. Kurt Busch ended up edging Kyle, and that gave him his first win of the season and a spot in the playoffs. This weekend, the Cup Series moves north to "The Magic Mile." New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a flat, one-mile oval where track position is of the utmost importance. This hybrid track feels like a short track, but it also has a lot of room, especially with the sticky PJ1 compound being applied to all grooves aside from the second lane, which is historically the fastest groove at NHMS.
For daily fantasy, this 301-lap race will be all about finding the dominant car. Each of the last five races at New Hampshire have had two different drivers lead more than 90 laps. If that happens again, it will be vital to get both of those drivers in your lineup to win tournaments, and it will be crucial to predict which drivers will be favorites to do that and play those guys in cash. Pass differential is certainly a compromise at this track, because while superior cars can pass with all the room and strategy certainly can be used, it is still incredibly difficult to pass on such a flat track.
Here at numberFire, we've always got you covered for everything NASCAR DFS. Our track preview gives you more information about the history of the track, our driver preview helps bring you up to speed on recent driver history, and our Heat Check Podcast with Jim Sannes gives you insight to how he is approaching this weekend's slate.
With this weekend's starting lineup set, and with practices one, two, and three complete, let's preview the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.
High-Priced Drivers
Kyle Busch ($14,500): Kyle Busch had the best car in Kentucky last weekend, and unfortunately for him, he faded on his final set of tires. Busch will look to rebound at one of his better race tracks. In three of the last six at NHMS, Busch has led at least 95 laps. He's only won one of those, however, but was bumped late by Kevin Harvick last summer in position for second. Kyle has been incredibly quick this weekend, and he will start outside pole. He was second, fourth, and third in the practice sessions. He is the most expensive driver in FanDuel's player pool, but he is arguably the best bet to be a dominant car in this race.
Martin Truex Jr ($14,000): The only guy who may be able to prop himself up with a better record than Busch at "The Magic Mile" is Martin Truex Jr. Truex has led more than 80 laps in each of the last five races at this track. So for five straight races, Truex has had one of the dominant cars here, and he is clearly a favorite for a good showing this weekend. Truex has been fast this week, just not quite as quick as his teammate, Busch, posting only fifth, 12th, and seventh in the respective practices. But Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn have such a successful adjustment notebook at this race track that you have to assume they will continue to tune up the number-19 car and have it contending once again at NHMS.
Brad Keselowski ($12,000): If you have played each week this season, Brad Keselowski starting toward the front, with quick practice times, on a shorter, flat race track may sound familiar. That is because back in April, Keselowski dominated at Martinsville Speedway, which is a smaller track than New Hampshire but is a very similar configuration. He led a record 446 laps that day, so the thought of all of those trends with your pole-sitter makes "Bad Brad" someone you will have to expose yourself to in daily fantasy this weekend. Keselowski and Kyle Busch were the only two cars top-five in 10-lap average times in both of Saturday's sessions, which means those two appear to have the most staying power over the long haul. In cash, stacking the front row of this race -- Keselowski and Busch -- may be the safest play, but in tournaments, splitting exposure with Truex Jr. may be a good way to vary lineups.
Mid-Priced Drivers
Alex Bowman ($9,900): Alex Bowman's driveshaft blew out of the car in qualifying, and it's why the young Hendrick driver is starting so deep (37th). His team went to a backup car and was likely fairly confident their weekend could not get much worse, but then Bowman wrecked the backup car on Saturday and will now be relying on teammate Jimmie Johnson's backup as his third machine of the weekend. All of this sounds particularly disastrous, but Bowman will probably have the highest ownership of any driver in the field. Why? He starts 37th at a track he finished top 15 at in both races a year ago. The floor/ceiling combination is too great to pass up, even given Bowman's wild weekend. He is an incredibly safe option in this price range.
Erik Jones ($9,000): Unlike Bowman, Erik Jones is a driver in this price tier who could lead laps at some point in the race. He has demonstrated that he absolutely carries the same speed as teammates Truex and Busch, winning second practice both in the single-lap and 10-lap average sequences. Jones was not as quick in final practice when conditions were a little hotter, but at only $9,000 and in a price range without many incredibly desirable or obvious options, Jones has enough speed to be in the conversation as a potential dominant car in this race. He finished 16th last year in his only race at this track with JGR.
Low-Priced Drivers
Chris Buescher ($7,000): No one in NASCAR's top series has had a quieter great season than JTG Daugherty's Chris Buescher. He has already set a career high with four top-10 finishes this season, and the great news for DFS is that all of them have come with him starting no better than 18th place. Buescher usually starts deep in the field and ascends quietly, and he'll look to do it again Sunday. He'll begin in 25th, and like most weeks, while he hasn't flashed top speed -- posting 17th and 25th in Saturday's practices -- he is a patient and consistent driver who is worth trusting, especially at this price tag.
Ryan Preece ($5,000): No one has Ryan Preece beat on lifetime track time here this weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The New England native, born in Berlin, Connecticut, cut his teeth racing northeastern short tracks, and this is seen as the holy grail of those. Preece even participated in the Whelen Modified All-Star Race on Thursday and is racing the touring modified race on Saturday. After finishing third in the Xfinity race here a year ago, Preece is very much a "horse for the course," starting a deep 28th at his home track. At only $5,000, he offers valuable salary relief, and things appear to be turning around for the rookie as he finished 21st last week at Kentucky for his first top-25 showing in five races.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
