NASCAR Betting Guide for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301

The odds-on favorite to pick up a win in New Hampshire this week, is there betting value to be had with Kyle Busch?

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy: there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 12 drivers won a race last season, and only six won more than a single time in 2018. A few weeks ago, Justin Haley had a once-in-a-lifetime cash at a 1000-1 bet to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400. In a non-competitive car, Haley took a huge chance as lightning was close, and the race was cancelled. So anyone can win a race it seems!

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at Kentucky, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

Here's where to put smart money for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301:

At The Top

Kyle Busch (+250): Once again, we have to look toward the chalk in order to find some of the better bets on the board. That might sound obvious, but Kyle Busch once again finds himself in a very opportune situation to win a race. His numbers line up best here. He has the highest season long driver rating in the field at 114.8, the best recent form driver rating at 121, and the best track history of any driver in the field since 2013. He averages a driver rating of 118.6. From the looks of it, he's one good qualifying session from locking in a win before the green flag drops.

Martin Truex Jr (+350): It seems that Truex is just behind the aforementioned Busch in almost every notable driver rating statistic this season. He's third in the field in season-long form, coming in with a driver rating of 104.4, second in recent form to Busch at 103.4 in terms of driver rating, and third behind Keselowski and Busch in terms of track history with a rating of 105.4. However, where Truex comes in first in this field is his track type rating this season at similar tracks. Where he comes in with a driver rating of 115.4 between races at Phoenix, Martinville, Richmond, and Bristol. You even get slightly better odds here as well. Same with Busch, Truex needs only to qualify well to succeed here.

Value Spots

Brad Keseloski (+800): I mentioned earlier that Martinville is a comparable track to New Hampshire, and assuming that is the case, Keselowski comes into this race ready to dominate. He led 446 laps that day on his way to a win and a perfect driver rating of 150. Brad also comes in here with solid track history, with a driver rating of 107.5 since 2013. Penske has enjoyed these high horsepower tracks so far this season in this package, so why not consider a Penske driver in your best bets to win?

Chase Elliot (+1200): Going back to Martinsville, there was only one driver who was able to say that he was even slightly competitive for the lead, and that was Elliot. He led the second most laps with 49. Elliot comes into this race with solid numbers all around, and great odds to bet on. This is another situation where we need to wait for qualifying to see if he can give himself ideal starting position.

Long Shots

William Byron (+6600): The iRacing champ of the world needs to win at some point? Right? With Hendrick Motorsports seeing a resurgence, it seems as if it is inevitable for a skilled driver like Byron to win a race this season. Byron actually comes into this race with some of the best recent form in the field, with a driver rating of 94.3 in his last 5 non-plate races. At these odds, someone with good recent for like Byron is seen as a strong value bet. I know I'm in!

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+18000): There's nothing that sticks out statistically that will say that Stenhouse is a fantastic bet here, this is moreso a gut call. Stenhouse is a very aggressive driver that is on the cusp of the cut line for the playoffs, and a win would lock him in. I see Stenhouse, as per usual, keeping the aggressive driving going and giving himself to win a race at some point this season. At these odds, I am willing to take a low-dollar shot on a driver whose volatility gives him the kind of boom-or-bust profile that can produce some intriguing value..