NASCAR Betting Guide for the Coke Zero Sugar 400
Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.
There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy -- there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 12 drivers won a race last season, with only six won more than a single time in 2018. In fact, two individual race teams (Joe Gibbs Racing and Penske Racing) have made up 15 of 16 winners this season -- the only exception being Hendrick's Chase Elliott at Talladega.
At The Top
Joey Logano (+800): Logano is the odds-on favorite to win this race and for good reason. These Penske cars have been able to perform well at restrictor plate tracks, and I see no reason why Penske would change setups this time around. Logano does well here at avoiding “the big one,” which is much more difficult than it sounds. At +800, these are fair odds for a good plate driver.
Denny Hamlin (+1000): When you talk about recent success at plate tracks, look no further than the driver who won the Daytona 500 here earlier in the season. If Hamlin can keep himself from wrecking out, he should be in the mix in this race. Keep in mind, though, that as a driver who is now in the playoffs, he might have a more checkers-or-wreckers mentality.
Value Bets
Chase Elliott (+1000): Let us talk about another driver who won at a plate track his season. The winner at Talladega, Elliott and the entire Hendricks Motor Sports team knows what it takes to win at plate tracks. Elliott has even shown that he has more patience for the cars around him than teammate Jimmie Johnson, who is known to cause wrecks at Daytona from time to time. This is some solid value for Elliot at 10/1.
Aric Almirola (+1400): Almirola is another driver we have seen do well at plate tracks because of his patience. Almirola was close to winning the 2018 and 2019 Daytona 500, and he was able to win the Talladega fall race last season. As long as he can continue his patience behind the wheel, he should be able to be competitive here once again.
Long Shots
Matt Dibenedetto (+4000): Dibenedetto's performance at the 2019 Daytona 500 before he wrecked was pretty incredible, maintaining a top-five running position for the majority of that time. He can certainly do the same again while making it up the field, and Dibenedetto is in need of a strong performance here in order to make the playoffs. Expect him to be in position for the win at the end of the race.
Bubba Wallace (+8000): I am not alone in saying that the entire NASCAR fan community is pulling for a Bubba Wallace win, considering everything good that he does and says off the track. That being said, his on-track performance has been lackluster to say the least. The great thing about Daytona is that the cars are on a much more level playing field, something that Wallace used to his advantage on his way to a second-place finish at the 2018 Daytona 500. He may be able to push for a win here once again.
