NASCAR Betting Guide for the Camping World 400

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy -- there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 12 drivers won a race last season, and only six won more than a single time in 2018. In fact, two individual race teams (Joe Gibbs Racing and Penske Racing) have made up 15 of 16 winners this season--the only exception being Hendrick's Chase Elliott at Talladega.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR coverage. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at Michigan International Speedway, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

Here's where to put smart money for the Camping World 400:

At the Top

Brad Keselowski (+800): There appears to be incredible value across the betting market this weekend, and that may come from the fact it has been a while since the Monster Energy Cup Series has been to a 1.5-mile track. There are two different types of 1.5-mile race tracks -- smooth and bumpy. Chicagoland Speedway is definitely bumpy and worn out, and that most similarly pairs to Las Vegas, Homestead, and Atlanta Motor Speedway, where Keselowski was the winner back in February. Keselowski has added a 1.5-mile win at Kansas, as well, and won the first stage in the daytime at Charlotte Motor Speedway. In short, when the track gets slick, Brad is tough beat. At 8-1 value, I think Keselowski would be my top play of the weekend factoring in value with odds.

Joey Logano (+800): Teammate Joey Logano was closing in on Keselowski back at Atlanta before a loose wheel had him pit and took him out of contention. He won the very next week at the somewhat bumpy and worn Las Vegas Motor Speedway -- which should come as no surprise. Penske has been the class of the field on 1.5-mile tracks, so the idea of pairing these two lead cars together in a portfolio and getting both as potential 8-1 winners is extremely inciting.

Value Spots

Denny Hamlin (+1800): Hamlin is a part of the contingent that has dominated 2019, as he has won twice including the 1.5-mile track at Texas. He has had a rough stretch through the early summer, finishing outside the top 10 in five of the last seven races, but that may be turning, as two of his last three finishes have been inside the first 10. At 18-1, Hamlin has flashed race-winning speed on similar tracks and can't be ignored considering he comes from the Joe Gibbs stable dominating the sport.

Ryan Blaney (+2000): Ryan Blaney has been a good step behind his Penske teammates this season, which is evident by his goose egg in the win column so far, but with similar equipment to the teams contending for wins, it is only a matter of time for the talented young racer. The biggest concern for Blaney is his qualifying speed. In the five races he's started inside the top 10, he has four top-10 showings and contended for a win at Phoenix. In all other races, he only has two top-10 finishes. Keep an eye on Blaney's time trial, and if all goes well, he may be worth backing Sunday.

Erik Jones (+2000): Jones shares many similarities to Ryan Blaney, except with an even more dominant team at Gibbs. Given that, it's no surprise they share the same odds to win Sunday's race. I believe I prefer Jones, who led laps at Texas and finished third at Kansas -- both feats Blaney does not share at 1.5-mile tracks. Again, when it comes to winning the race, Jones is more of a long shot, but if you are seeking smart action in this value area, Jones is a fantastic dart throw.

Long Shot

Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+10000): It's worth mentioning Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -- even at these incredibly long odds -- and the reason why comes via numberFire's own Jim Sannes. Ricky Stenhouse Jr is only one of four drivers with a top-10 average running position at similar tracks Las Vegas and Kansas, with the others being Kevin Harvick (9-2), Brad Keselowski (8-1), and Chase Elliott (10-1). Stenhouse at 100-1 odds appears to be tremendous value considering the raw speed he has shown on sister tracks, and if you are going to throw a shot this long, Stenhouse appears to at least have a solid machine.

Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.