What It Means:

Per Astros manager Scott Servais, Paxton will be limited to 50 pitches as Seattle opens up a pivotal three-game set in Houston on Friday. It will be a tough draw for the left-hander, who landed on the disabled list back on August 11 with a strained left pectoral muscle. Prior to going down, Paxton was putting together a brilliant campaign, with a 2.78 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 28.6 percent strikeout rate while compiling a 12-3 record for Seattle across 119 2/3 innings pitched.

In 15 2/3 more innings over the remainder of the year, numberFire's models expect Paxton to record a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 14 punchouts.