What It Means:

Lester had initially been penciled in as the No. 3 starter before a rough exhibition appearance last Friday. He was the Cubs' Opening Day starter each of the previous three seasons but was stripped of the job after the left-hander raised his ERA from 3.32 to 4.46 last year. Conversely, Lester raised his strikeout percentage from 19.6 to 21.6 and lowered his walk percentage from 8.4 percent to 6.8 percent. He turned 36 in January.

numberFire's models expect Lester to record a 4.70 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 54 strikeouts and 18 walks over 59 1/3 innings this season.