MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 7/11/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Three Top Pitchers
Chris Capuano - Here's a secret about the Colorado Rockies: their offense might not be as grand as we once thought. Their strikeout rate has crept up to the league average, and their walk rate is half a percent below the league average. While their 26 percent line drive rate is still the highest in the league, we're not so sure that's sustainable either. On the other side, Capuano has an offense backing him that is on an absolute tear facing off against the young Drew Pomeransz who has done less than nothing this year. If Capuano pitches even average ball - and his 21 percent line drive rate allowed isn't indicative of his unsustainably high .327 BABIP - then he should be in line for the win. At least, that's what our projections that give him a league-high 0.56 projected wins tonight say.
Tim Hudson - He may only hold a 17.2 percent strikeout rate, but Tim Hudson's strength is limiting balls in play. In a year when seemingly everybody is hitting the ball harder (the league average line drive rate has jumped two percent to 22%), Hudson still has limited opponents to a 19 percent line drive rate and a sustainable .276 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That's key, especially against the Reds and their sixth-highest walk rate in the majors. It's the main catalyst behind Hudson's low 1.25 projected WHIP tonight.
Kyle Kendrick - Angry at us that we don't have any top-priced stars tonight? You tell me which one you want from the crop we have to choose from in the late games. Mat Latos, whose 1.224 WHIP is solid but is playing the Braves? Madison Bumgarner, whose 0.966 WHIP is excellent but costs almost double across the board what these other pitchers are going for? (If you're insistent, I'd go Bumgarner.) Nah, I'll stick with Kendrick for my third, who has a low projected K total but a top-tier matchup against Washington's fourth-lowest .300 OBP.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Carlos Gonzalez - It's one of those "Yes we suggest the opposing pitcher, but..." deals. Yes we like Chris Capuano overall as our top pitching option overall, but if somebody's going to get to him, CarGo has a good shot. Capuano's main weakness is the long ball; he's given up homeruns on at least 3.0 percent of opponent's plate appearances in every major league season he's pitched since 2003. That's beautiful for Gonzalez, who holds a 6.3 percent homerun rate and 0.28 projected bombs tonight himself.
Buster Posey - Oh, Jason Marquis. I don't look at the 9-4 record; I look at the 1.486 WHIP, 3.7 percent homerun rate, 14.8 percent strikeout rate, and unbelievably high 13.5 percent walk rate. In fact, the only thing saving Marquis whatsoever is a .256 BABIP that is due to regress upwards towards the mean considering his .290 career average. Posey's usually one of our top catching options anyway, but his .364 projected average against the Padres tonight is just icing on the cake.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Shin-Soo Choo - I still find it odd that he's considered a mid-range guy considering his .415 OBP and .873 OPS, but hey, I take what I'm given. And what I'm given today is a hitter with a 26 percent line drive rate and a .333 BABIP going against Tim Hudson, who for all of his strengths up there, still does allow a large percentage of balls in play. If someone's going to get to him out of the Reds lineup, it's going to be a high BABIP guy who can find holes in the defense... just like Choo.
Rickie Weeks - An OBP that's 58 points higher against lefties, and he's facing off against Arizona's Wade Miley tonight? I'm absolutely on the Weeks bandwagon tonight. Almost as importantly, I'm also on the anti-Miley bandwagon, considering his strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and homerun rate are all worse than the league-average MLB pitcher. Throw in a .314 BABIP to boot, and this is one of the better matchups Weeks will have all season. Especially considering 2B staples Cano and Kipnis have early games today, take the value for the late guy while you can.