MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 7/16/16
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. This article is for the main slate, which starts at 7:05 PM EST and features 10 games.
Pitchers to Target
Adam Wainwright ($9,000 on FanDuel): It’s a fairly weak pitching slate today, certainly as far as big names go, but Wainwright is an expensive arm worth looking into for his home matchup with the Miami Marlins. Wainwright is having a very un-Wainwright-like season, posting a 4.30 SIERA, his worst mark since 2007. With that said, there are some positive signs for this outing. Wainwright -- our third-ranked hurler -- has gotten better as the season has progressed, recording a 25.4% whiff rate and 3.42 xFIP in June. He’s also been outstanding at Busch Stadium, where he’s limited opposing hitters to a .273 wOBA. Those factors help offset a tough matchup with Miami, who sports a .323 wOBA this season versus righties. The Marlins’ implied total of 3.6 runs is the day’s second-lowest clip.
Tanner Roark ($8,500): On most days, Roark would be more of a value play -- and he still is -- but he’s the sixth-most expensive arm on today’s main slate. Roark has been superb this season, pitching to a 3.93 SIERA by way of a 21.2% strikeout rate, both of which are career-best numbers. He’s held hitters to a .275 wOBA at home, which is where he’ll be for today’s clash with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh owns a solid .323 wOBA, but the Pirates have struggled to a .308 wOBA over the last 30 days. They’ve also been worse on the road, boasting a .313 wOBA away from home. Roark is our second-ranked pitcher, projected for more FanDuel points than Wainwright with a cheaper price tag.
Matt Shoemaker ($8,100): While Roark makes for a nice value play, it’s going to be hard to pass on Shoemaker today. At an affordable price, he’s our top-ranked pitcher with a projected point total of 32.73 points. Regardless of what type of fantasy league you play -- season-long, dynasty or daily -- Shoemaker is a guy you should be targeting. He’s performed like elite pitcher, but he’s not being valued like one, which you can see from his price tag. The Los Angeles Angels’ righty put up a stellar 29.0% strikeout rate in May and followed that up with a 27.3% whiff rate in June. For the year, Shoemaker owns a 3.78 SIERA, 23.4% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate. All of those numbers rank in the top 25 among qualified starters. Shoemaker has been excellent at home, where he’s held hitters to a .285 wOBA, compared to a .357 wOBA on the road. He’ll be at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium tonight for a clash with the Chicago White Sox, who rank 23rd in wOBA (.309) and 25th in homers (88).
Hitters to Target
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600): Goldschmidt is the main slate’s top-ranked bat with a projected point total of 14.58. His numbers -- .396 wOBA, 16 jacks, 12 steals and a 16.0% walk rate -- are out of this world again this season. Goldschmidt set the National League ablaze in June, hitting .350 with a .416 wOBA. He will see Los Angeles Dodgers’ righty Brandon McCarthy tonight. McCarthy just recently returned from a serious elbow injury and owns a 35.9% strikeout rate over a small sample of 10 innings. He pitched to a 3.00 SIERA and 20.9% strikeout rate in 2014, his last full season. The game will be played at Chase Field, which ranks fifth in park factor. Goldschmidt boasts a .379 wOBA this year at home against right-handers, and Arizona has an implied total of 4.09 runs.
Ryan Braun ($3,700): Braun is always worth a look against a left-hander, and today he gets Cincinnati Reds’ lefty John Lamb at homer-happy Great American Ball Park, which sits fifth in home run factor. Braun has dominated southpaws this season, mashing lefties to the tune of a .411 wOBA. It’s not just that Lamb’s left-handed; it’s that he’s a bad lefty. Lamb is sporting a 4.84 SIERA and 9.6% walk rate. He is allowing 1.63 dingers per nine innings at home, and the Milwaukee Brewers have a juicy implied total of 4.68 runs,
Brett Eibner ($2,000): Eibner is a great way -- the cheapest way possible, actually -- to get exposure to the Kansas City Royals’ lineup, which has an implied total of 4.61 runs for their matchup with Detroit Tigers’ righty Mike Pelfrey. Eibner has been hitting seventh for Kansas City, and he has a .364 wOBA with 3 taters in 66 plate appearances this season, his first in the bigs. Pelfrey has been really, really bad this year, struggling to a 5.27 SIERA, 10.4% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. Against a Royals team that’s notoriously difficult to whiff (19.7% strikeout rate), Pelfrey could be in store for a rough one. Eibner is our top-ranked value hitter.