MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Sunday 7/3/16
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. This article is for the all-day slate, which starts at 1:07 PM EST and features all 15 games.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitchers
Noah Syndergaard ($10,200 on FanDuel): Syndergaard, bone spur and all, is our top-ranked pitcher for his home matchup with the Chicago Cubs, who boast the second lowest implied total of the day at 3.27 runs. The bone spur and the Cubs being so good makes Syndergaard a little risky, but it should keep his ownership numbers in check, which, in turn, could make him more attractive. Syndergaard’s numbers are out of this world. He owns a 2.56 SIERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 4.0% walk rate. He’s been darn near unhittable at Citi Field, which ranks last in park factor. In 51 innings at home this season, Syndergaard is limiting hitters to a .238 wOBA while pitching to a 1.62 xFIP. He may not be an ideal cash game option, but he's an enticing tourney play.
Jon Lester ($10,600): Pitcher-friendly Citi Field also benefits Lester, Syndergaard’s opposition this afternoon. Our second-ranked arm, Lester has a good matchup against a New York Mets squad which has struggled to a .301 wOBA, which ranks 26th, against lefties this year. The Mets have also been worse at home, recording a .301 wOBA at Citi Field, compared to a .310 mark on the road. Lester is coming off a really good month of June, where he put up a 3.03 xFIP, 26.5% whiff rate and 4.2% walk rate. The Mets’ implied total of 3.23 runs is the lowest mark of the day, and Lester figures to be a highly-owned player in cash games.
Value Pitcher
Collin McHugh ($7,200): McHugh, a righty, is just the 20th most expensive pitcher today, but he’s our fifth-ranked hurler for his tasty home matchup with the Chicago White Sox. Although they’ve hit better of late, Chicago ranks 21st in overall wOBA (.311) and 21st in wOBA versus right-handers (.307). Houston’s Minute Maid Park ranks 17th in park factor, and McHugh held hitters to a .302 wOBA in his home outings last season. McHugh’s season-long numbers -- 4.06 SIERA, 20.9% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate -- are fairly league average, but his cost and matchup make him an intriguing target.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Mike Trout ($4,600): The Los Angeles Angels had themselves a nice little Saturday, racking up 21 runs, and Vegas expects another good offensive outing today, giving them a juicy implied total of 4.95 runs. A lot of the things which made Trout attractive yesterday also apply today. The dude is straight up mashing right-handed pitching (.435 wOBA), and he gets to face righty Sean O'Sullivan (4.85 SIERA and 12.7% whiff rate) in a hitters' park (Fenway ranks second in park factor). Trout is the day’s most expensive hitter, but he’s also our top-ranked bat.
Chris Davis ($4,400): Davis makes a ton of money because of his ability to crush right-handed pitching, and he squares off with Seattle Mariners’ righty Hisashi Iwakuma this afternoon. Davis is sporting a .374 wOBA this season against right-handers, and he’s (surprisingly) been better away from homer-happy Camden Yards, putting up a .432 wOBA on the road against righties. If that’s not enough to sell you, the guy has been out of his mind lately, racking up a massive .415 wOBA in June. July has been just as kind to Davis as he has gone deep in each of his two games this month.
Value Hitter
Tommy Pham ($2,000): Pham is a great way to get access to the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup, which boasts a mouth-watering implied total of 4.74 runs. Pham isn’t a regular -- so check the Cards’ lineup -- but he’s started against righties the last two days, including hitting leadoff on Saturday. Assuming Matt Carpenter, who got the day off yesterday, is back in the lineup, Pham is will likely be near the bottom of the order, but he’s got a nice home matchup against Milwaukee righty Chase Anderson. Pham owns a .346 wOBA versus righties this season, and Anderson is sporting a 4.58 SIERA. Anderson has had a hard time away from home, allowing a .367 wOBA on the road.
