MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Sunday 6/19/16
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. This article is for the all-day slate, which starts at 1:10 PM ET and features all 15 games.
Pitchers to Target
Gio Gonzalez ($9,300 on FanDuel): With a 3.67 SIERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, Gonzalez is turning in another solid season. Today, he gets a nice matchup with the San Diego Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. San Diego ranks 28th in wOBA (.294), 19th in home runs (73) and 20th in ISO (.147). The Padres have been a touch worse at home, posting a .142 ISO and .290 wOBA at Petco Park, which checks in as the second-best pitchers’ park, per ESPN’s Park Factor. With a projected point total of 36.69, Gonzalez is our top-ranked pitcher.
Jacob deGrom ($10,400): Our models really like deGrom for his matchup with the lowly Atlanta Braves. Atlanta -- who ranks last in wOBA (.277) and homers (31) -- has the day’s lowest implied total at 2.8 runs. After getting off to a slow start, deGrom has found his groove in June. He has punched out 28 batters over his last 19 innings. Through three starts this month, he is sporting a 36.8% whiff rate, 4.0% walk rate and 20% hard-hit rate. Those numbers are significantly better than his May splits, when he posted an 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate.
Kyle Hendricks ($8,200): Hendricks keeps putting up solid numbers, but his price hasn’t budged. Hendricks has a tough home matchup today against the stout lineup of the Pittsburgh Pirates, but his production and price tag are worth a look. Hendricks -- our top-ranked value pitcher -- owns a 20.8% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate to go with a career-best 54.7% ground-ball rate. He’s been considerably better at home, too, holding hitters to a .212 wOBA at Wrigley Field while giving up a .302 wOBA on the road. Pittsburgh’s .327 wOBA ranks ninth, but the Pirates have been better at home (.337 wOBA) than on their travels (.318 wOBA).
Hitters to Target
Mike Trout ($4,000): Trout is having another incredible season. He owns a .302/.409/.540 slash line with a .399 wOBA, 14 bombs and 9 steals. He is our top-ranked bat for his matchup with Oakland Athletics’ left-hander Eric Surkamp at the Oakland Coliseum. While Oakland is far from hitter-friendly, Trout has mashed on the road this year, putting up a .411 wOBA away from Anaheim. His batted-ball rates in June -- 43.5 hard-hit rate and 41.3 fly-ball rate -- are to die for. The only thing suppressing his numbers of late is this month’s lowly .273 BABIP. Not only does Trout sport a career .393 wOBA versus southpaws, but Surkamp has a hideous 6.22 SIERA with a 9.8% strikeout rate this season.
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500): Any worries about Goldschmidt’s slow start look silly now. He’s been out of his mind in June. Over 72 plate appearances this month, he is boasting a .438 wOBA and 48.9% hard-hit rate. Goldschmidt’s season-long numbers are up to .290/.425/.518 with a .402 wOBA and 18.1% walk rate. He will face off with Philadelphia Phillies’ righty Zach Eflin today at Citizens Bank Park. Goldschmidt owns a 40.3% hard-hit rate versus right-handers this season, and Philly’s home field ranks first in home run factor.
Anthony Rizzo ($3,200): Rizzo was a great value play yesterday, and he came through, totaling 27.7 FanDuel points. Well, his price tag has only gone up $200 today, and his upside in a loaded lineup makes him hard to ignore at this price. Pittsburgh Pirates’ right-hander Jameson Taillon may very well be the truth, but he’s going to have his hands full with Rizzo, who is mashing righties to the tune of a .421 wOBA with a 16.2% walk rate. As an added bonus, the wind is expected to be blowing out tonight at Wrigley.
Victor Martinez ($2,900): Much like Rizzo, any time a player of this caliber can be had for this price, it’s at least worth investigating. Martinez gets a stellar matchup against Kansas City Royals’ right-handed starter Chris Young. While he’s been better than he was a year ago, Young is still sporting a 4.37 SIERA and 8.9% walk rate. In his age-37 season, Martinez is flat out raking, putting up a .391 wOBA with 12 dingers. A switch-hitter, he has a 43.5% hard-hit rate against righties this season, and he owns a .387 wOBA in June. Typically sandwiched between Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos, Martinez is in a great spot to do some damage.