MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 6/17/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Three Top Pitchers
Shelby Miller - Shelby Miller - for whom we have a full-fledged man-crush with his 28.7 percent strikeout rate - is facing off against the Chicago Cubs and their 25th-ranked .301 OBP. What could go wrong? Considering Miller's only weakness is a slightly-above average 22 percent line drive rate but the Cubs only hold a 20 percent rate themselves and a fifth-worst .280 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), not much. Miller's 0.50 projected wins and 0.19 projected losses are the best of any pitcher tonight.
Patrick Corbin - Let the blowback begin. Despite his 9-0 start, Corbin has been receiving a good deal of flack with his four ER in two recent appearances against the Cubs and Dodgers. Thanks to that ERA bump, Corbin's now the fourth or fifth-highest cost starting pitcher today... which puts him right in our wheelhouse. His insanely low 1.2 percent homerun rate shouldn't be challenged by Miami's league-worst 1.4 percent rate, and Miami's second-worst 6.4 percent walk rate blends nicely with Corbin's 6.3 percent rate. Sure, Miami may get some hits, but the lack of homeruns and walks should serve to strand some runners on base.
Max Scherzer - Yeah, it's going to be a day to load up on high-priced pitchers. Scherzer may hold one of the highest prices for a pitcher overall, but what value can you place on a pitcher with an insane 31.0 percent strikeout rate and league-leading 0.875 WHIP? The Orioles might not be the best matchup with their under-average 17.4 percent strikeout rate and above-average .325 OBP, but we still consider Scherzer a sure thing with 0.49 projected wins.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt - Wilmington, DE native Paul Goldschmidt (obligatory Delaware reference) doesn't have a single homerun since June 7 and is 0-10 in his past three games. Naturally, this has brought his cost down in some formats, but he's now right at the perfect level to take advantage. Given his 5.1 percent homerun rate this season, we wouldn't be surprised to see him hit one soon. And ignoring Jacob Turner's 1-0 record and 1.80 ERA, the pitcher only strikes out 16.0 percent of batters and walks 9.0 percent. Sure, he hasn't allowed a homerun this year, but he has given them up on 3.3 percent of plate appearances over his career.
Giancarlo Stanton - Well, that didn't take long. 114 plate appearances into his season, and Stanton is already right back in form with a .360 OBP, .475 slugging, a career-high 12.3 percent walk rate, and a career-low 24.6 percent strikeout rate. His 4.4 percent homerun rate is indeed his lowest ever, but that's because he has been hitting more groundballs than fly balls for the first time in his career (1.03 GB/FB ratio). Against Patrick Corbin and his insane 1.2 percent homeruns allowed rate, it may not matter, but that bettered walk and strikeout rate makes him a top outfielder candidate.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Cody Ross - Paul Goldscmidt, Redux: Cody Ross comes into this game 0-11 in his past three contests. But similar to Goldschmidt, there are plenty of reasons to be feeling good about the D'Backs No. 4 or 5 hitter on most nights. Watch for Jacob Turner's hits allowed to slowly increase throughout the season as well; Turner's .250 BABIP seems wholly unsustainable given his league-average 22 percent line drives on balls in play allowed rate. Given Ross' own 24 percent line drive rate, he's one guy who could benefit (especially with Goldschmidt potentially right above him in the order).
A.J. Pierzynski - It's all about giving a batter opportunities to do something in play. Dan Straily, even with his ERA likely to decrease from its current 4.45, allows 71 percent of opposing plate apperances to put a ball in play thanks to a lower-than-average strikeout and walk rate. Pierzynski, meanwhile, holds a 24 percent line drive rate and a .329 BABIP. But those two factors together, and Pierzynski's .315 projected average tonight, second-best among catchers behind the much-higher-priced Buster Posey, becomes obvious.