MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 6/14/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
Matt Moore - It's Mid-Range Pitcher Day, brought to you by numberFire! I've written plenty of times about how it's advantageous to always pick against the Royals - their 6.6 percent walk rate is third-worst in the majors and their 1.5 percent homerun rate is second-worst. They're a nice punching bag on a normal day. But while Matt Moore's 8-2 record is indeed an outlier considering his 1.348 WHIP, much of his stuggles are due to a 11.7 percent walk rate (4.6 walks per nine). Against the Royals, that percentage should go down and his .267 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed can shine.
Stephen Fife - Numbers like Fife's 1.500 WHIP are 2013-Amanda Bynes terrifying. I get it. But when you also have a pitcher with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate and 5.7 percent walk rate, the numbers become more Marilyn Manson terrifying: at least you know what you're getting yourself into. And then when you noticed the completely unsustainable .462 BABIP, brought on by a 23 percent line drive rate only a little above the MLB average, the numbers become Pinocchio terrifying: why was I so scared when I was young and naive? Facing Pittsburgh's sorry OPS and fourth-highest strikeout rate, I have full faith in Fife.
Tommy Milone - The third option of Mid-Range Pitcher Day, Milone is our will-probably-win-because-of-the-opposing-pitcher special. Joe Saunders holds a 5.12 ERA and a 1.474 WHIP? Yup, Milone's third-highest 0.44 projected wins makes sense to me. Milone's 19.9 percent strikeout rate doesn't jump off the page, but the Mariners do strike out the sixth-most in the majors at 22.3 percent of plate appearances. That gives Milone a middling 4.30 projected strikeouts tonight, which should work just fine when coupled with his second-lowest among all starters 1.41 projected walks.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Mike Trout - For being alive during Watergate, Andy Pettitte actually isn't too bad of a pitcher - I'd take his 1.255 WHIP any day. But the problem with Pettitte is that he allows too many balls into play, as his 18.7 percent strikeout rate sits over a full percentage point below league average. And you don't want to give Mike Trout (who has lowered his own strikeout rate by over three percent) chances in the field of play, as his .332 BABIP sits 36 points above the league average yet somehow incredibly still 51 points below last season's .383 rate.
Carlos Gonzalez - Hey, if you're going mid-range price on the pitchers, might as well spend on the outfielders, right? That's part of what makes Gonzalez such an attractive option today - facing off against Kyle Kendrick, CarGo can give you bang for your buck. Kendrick may be 6-4 with a halfway decent ERA, but his 15.4 percent strikeout rate (12.4 career) leaves a lot to be desired. And when Gonzalez receives ample opportunity to put the ball in play, he shines with a 29 percent line drive rate and a .352 BABIP this season.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Jimmy Rollins - It's Coors Field exploitation time! OK, Rollins isn't going to hit too many homeruns: that's what Ryan Howard, also on most of our optimized rosters, is for. Instead, Rollins is all about taking advantage of Nicasio's low 15.7 percent strikeout rate to put a substantial number of balls in play. And just like Trout and Gonzalez before him, Rollins is dangerous when he puts balls in play with a 26 percent line drive rate and a .300 BABIP.
Jason Castro - An Astros batter, going against Chris Sale? Really? For such a low cost, I'll take Castro's .326 OBP and .463 slugging, though. He hits either second or third in the Houston lineup every day, so you know he'll get his at-bats, and even when he doesn't catch (like Wednesday) he still plays DH. A 24.2 percent strikeout rate does leave something to be desired, especially against the strikeout master Sale, but a 32 percent line drive rate and a .325 BABIP when he does make contact makes his .298 projected average tonight a realistic expectation.