MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 6/12/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
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The Three Top Pitchers
Chris Sale - That 0.918 WHIP makes me giggle with glee. Let's get that out of the way first. His 5-4 record may not look great, but his 24.1 percent strikeout rate, 6.0 percent walk rate, 2.3 percent homerun rate, and .232 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) sure do. And he's going against a Toronto team that is about league average in OBP, strikeout rate, and walk rate (although slightly above in slugging)? I'll absolutely take that matchup and exploit it. But, watch out for rain, it could be a factor with today's game.
Francisco Liriano - It's been a fun ride, hasn't it? After his seven innings scoreless with only two hits allowed against the Cubs last week, Liriano is now down to a 1.75 ERA and 1.162 WHIP. While I do have some major questions about the long-term viability of those numbers, there is no denying the 30.9 percent strikeout rate, 9.2 percent walk rate, and exactly zero homeruns he's allowed. There are certainly better matchups than the Giants as they strike out the lowest rate in the MLB and have the 11th-best OBP, but they also hold the league's third-lowest homerun rate. You take the good with the bad. And unfortunately, rain could be a factor with this game as well.
Nick Tepesch - Sure, Tepesch has had a few struggles in his rookie season. His 25 percent line drive rate isn't great, and I'd like to see a little bit more than a 17.2 percent strikeout rate if he's going to be truly dominant. But man, a mid-priced option with 0.43 projected wins and 0.16 projected losses, going against a team with the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.5 percent) and a starting pitcher who hasn't had a WHIP under 1.350 since coming to Cleveland? He's my best of the rest behind tonight's big four of Sale, Liriano, Verlander, and Miller (the last two being too high-priced).
Top High-Priced Hitters
Troy Tulowitzki - He's going to be the highest priced batter you'll select across most formats, but know what? That's totally 100 percent OK. Nationals starter Ross Ohlendorf is primed to make his first start of the season in Coors Field, but he's doing it with a 1.480 career WHIP, a strikeout rate that has never topped 16.7 percent, and a homerun rate at 3.0 percent or above in all but one of his six MLB seasons. And this is the guy who is supposed to stop Tulowitzki's NL-leading .651 slugging and his .420 OBP? I'm doubtful.
Adrian Beltre - What to do about 3B? Miguel Cabrera against James Shields? Don't be fooled by that 2-6 record; Shields is one of the best pitchers in the AL by the analytics. David Wright against Shelby Miller? You know I'll take a pass. Evan Longoria against Alfredo Aceves? Closer, but he doesn't have the stats of another guy. Adrian Beltre against Ubaldo Jiminez. Let's see: a projected .328 average, 0.28 HR, 0.88 runs scored, and 0.84 RBI, all of which are in the top ten of all batters? I think we've found our man.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Desmond Jennings - What a world of difference the leadoff spot makes. After hitting in the six or seven hole for much of recent Rays history, the outfielder moved up to the leadoff spot for yesterday's game against the Red Sox while Matt Joyce made the long trip from first to ninth. And what happened? A Jennings 3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI offensive explosion that propelled the Rays to victory. Watch tonight's lineups - if he's back in the leadoff spot, we love him with the more projected plate appearances, especially against Alfredo Aceves' 1.946 WHIP.
David Murphy - Welcome back to the two slot, David Murphy. You enjoying it all the way up here? I'm certainly enjoying 3.5 percent homerun rate and low 13.5 percent strikeout rate there, that's for sure. Yeah, the .290 OBP is a problem, but that's mostly caused from bad luck on balls in play with a .215 BABIP (down from his .308 career average). Jiminez has allowed an above-average 22 percent of balls in play against him to be hit for line drives this season, and his .282 BABIP is solid, but not great. With a .293 projected average tonight, we love Murphy's chances to turn it around for a low cost.