MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 6/10/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Three Top Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw - That 5-4 record makes me giggle. Kershaw's sitting there with a 0.964 WHIP, 25.1 percent strikeout rate, 7.2 percent walk rate, and 1.4 percent homerun rate. And somehow he's not the highest-priced pitcher in DraftStreet, FantasyFeud, and Fanthrowdown, and he's only got Iwakuma by $100 on DraftKings? I know Iwakuma's going against the Astros, but that's too low of a cost for Kershaw to go anywhere else in those formats tonight with those numbers. His 6.41 projected strikeouts are 1.38 more than any other pitcher tonight (fittingly, Iwakuma's second).
Homer Bailey - There are three main ways to take advantage of poor offenses tonight. The first is with Iwakuma, but he's too high priced among all formats. The second is R.A. Dickey against the White Sox, but with Dickey's unreliable performance and the Blue Jays hitting backing him up, we have him with almost as high of a projected loss total as he has wins. The third is Homer Bailey against the Cubs. 0.44 projected wins against 0.23 projected losses, the third-most projected strikeouts at 4.95, and a mid-range cost among all formats? We'll take that one, please.
Julio Teheran - The Padres certainly don't fall in the offenses to take advantage of category; their OBP, strikeout rate, and walk rate are all around the league average, even if their homerun rate is a bit lower than they'd like. But Teheran is still worth a look, not for a repeat no-hit performance, but because of a potential low-walk performance. His season 5.1 percent walk rate contributes to a 1.30 projected WHIP tonight, the fifth-lowest among the league's 20 starters. Given that his price is still manageable (and miles lower than the four pitchers ahead of him in WHIP), now's the time to take advantage of the former top prospect.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Jose Bautista - Dylan Axelrod holds a low 13.7 percent strikeout rate, a right-around-league-average 7.2 percent walk rate and 2.4 percent homerun rate, and a .275 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that sits .029 better than his career best. He sure seems like an exploitable inefficiency to me, especially considering Bautista's main weakness is a 19.1 percent career strikeout rate that Axelrod isn't equipped to take advantage of. Bautista's .275 BABIP should increase in time given his 23 percent line drive rate, as should his 4.8 percent homerun rate given his three straight seasons above six percent.
Miguel Cabrera - Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie may be 6-3, but he's also exactly the type of pitcher primed for a regression in due time. His 13.2 percent strikeout rate is miles under the league average, his 4.5 percent homerun rate is over a full percentage point above the league average, and the only thing keeping him afloat at this point is a .267 BABIP. Miggy's fifth-best .383 BABIP should have a way to change that, and considering the large amount of balls in play that Guthrie allows, we think Cabrera will be just fine.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
A.J. Pierzynski - Scott Kazmir, still in my mind the next great Devil Rays superstar pitcher (one of these days, right?), has allowed line drives on 24 percent of his balls in play and a ludicrously high .364 BABIP this season. Pierzynski, meanwhile, has hit 25 percent of his balls in play for line drives and holds a .336 BABIP. Seems like a match made in heaven to me, and our projections agree: Pierzynski holds a .303 projected average and 0.94 projected RBIs tonight. That projected RBI total is second among all batters behind only Cabrera, by the way.
Andy Dirks - We've already mentioned why Guthrie is good to face tonight, but why should you take advantage with Dirks specifically? It all falls in that line drive rate; 25 percent of Dirks' balls in play this season have been hard-hit line drives. Considering Guthrie's a groundball pitcher who allows a ton of balls in play, guys who hit a high percentage of line drives see their skills amplified even further against him. Dirks' 0.89 projected singles are the fifth-most of any outfielder tonight, and his 4.49 projected at-bats from the leadoff spot are the most of any batter overall.