MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 6/4/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Three Top Pitchers
Felix Hernandez - I feel like it's been too long since we picked on the White Sox. A part of me is missing. But since their team OBP has dropped back down to .288 after flirting with .300 for a period last week, it's high time to get back on the anti-Chicago horse. And what better way to do that than a dominating pitcher with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate going against the team that strikes out the sixth-highest proportion in the majors? King Felix's 0.18 projected losses and 6.57 projected strikeouts surprises me very little.
Tim Lincecum - What's up, here? Lincecum's 23.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.8 percent walk rate, and 2.4 percent homerun rate are fairly close to career averages, so that's not the issue. The problem here is that 26 percent of his allowed balls in play have been for line drives, which has led to an inflated .328 batting average on balls in play. Luckily for Lincecum, Toronto's 22 percent line drive rate is only average, and their .287 BABIP is below average. Lincecum's main weakness won't be facing his toughest test tonight, so now's the time to hop on the regression to his career mean bandwagon.
Michael Wacha - I'm not typically one to jump on a bandwagon early; the law of small sample sizes scares me half to death. But for Wacha or his counterpart David Phelps (who I also thought about putting in this spot), there's something to be said for being a starter at all for a hard-hitting team. Despite his small sample size, Wacha still holds 0.49 projected wins tonight (tied for the highest) simply because he plays for the Cardinals. And there isn't a single fantasy platform that has risen his cost accordingly. Even against above-average hitting Arizona, now's the time to take advantage before they do.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Robinson Cano - This is your weekly reminder that Robinson Cano is better than every other second baseman (for fantasy purposes), forever and ever amen. Sure, there are times when he's not worth the high cost, but going tonight against Scott Kazmir's 1.587 WHIP, 3.9 percent homerun rate, and .362 BABIP allowed is not one of those times.
Ryan Braun - Can you believe that Ryan Braun hasn't hit a homerun since May 22? That'll drive your cost down. But it's a good thing, then, that we only look at the big picture rather than highly variable day-to-day stats, and Braun's solid career power numbers are taking on A.J. Griffin's 3.9 percent homerun rate (3.4 percent career) tonight. Griffin's low .268 BABIP seems to be an exploitable anomaly in the face of an average 22 percent line drive rate and an extremely fly ball-heavy 0.48 GB/FB ratio as well.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
David Murphy - To be honest, Red Sox starter Ryan Dempster isn't as bad as his 2-6 record and 4.45 ERA would have you believe. At the very least, his 26.2 percent strikeout rate isn't half bad. But fortunately for Daily Fantasy players, avoiding strikeouts is one of Murphy's specialties - he sits at a 13.3 percent strikeout rate on the season. Meanwhile, Murphy seems in prime position to take on Dempster's 3.7 percent homerun rate considering he's hit homeruns on 3.6 percent of plate appearances himself.
Chase Headley - I was all about Headley yesterday, and to be fair, he did get a single and an RBI despite striking out twice. But even with his slump now at 1 for his past 18, I'm not going to go away from the well quite yet. Ted Lilly has only struck out 16.9 percent of opposing batters this year, and that's actually a higher proportion than last season. Meanwhile, he's allowed 26 percent of balls in play to go for line drives and a BABIP of .302. Tonight's a solid bet for Headley to snap out of his mini-slump.