3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitters to Avoid on 4/19/16
As is the case in most daily fantasy sports, finding information on players you might want to roster is a lot easier than finding players to avoid.
While you can get away with a zero from a hitter in daily fantasy, you certainly don't want to target guys whose matchups aren't enticing.
Here are three hitters you may want to lessen your exposure to or even fade altogether on Tuesday.
David Ortiz, 1B, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Price: $4,000
David Ortiz is once again off to a solid start, and it appears as if the 40-year-old is going to play forever. He already has three home runs during the young season, and his OPS is 1.139. However, his price has gone up some since the start of the season, and the left-hander faces a tough battle with Rays lefty Drew Smyly in Boston. While being at home definitely helps Big Papi, his matchup tonight is a bit concerning for a player priced in the $4,000 threshold.
Smyly has owned lefties throughout his career, and even though lefties have taken advantage of him so far to start the season, he has only faced 12 left-handed hitters, so I’m not getting overly concerned just yet. Lefties own a wOBA of just .244 in Smyly’s career, and Smyly’s strikeout rate against lefties is nearly 30 percent. Plus, he walks lefties a lot less often, with a strikeout to walk percentage of 24.5 percent.
Ortiz, on the other hand, has slowed down against lefties in the latter stages of his career. Last season, Ortiz hit just .231 against lefties, with a wOBA of .301. His ISO also dropped to .195, compared to .320 against right-handed pitchers. Ortiz also struck out a lot more last season against lefties, posting a strike out rate of 21.2 percent, compared to only 13 percent against righties. Smyly might get the better of him tonight.
Jason Heyward, OF, Chicago Cubs
FanDuel Price: $3,500
Jason Heyward has struggled to start the new season in a Cubs uniform, and now that he is playing his old team and Jaime Garcia tonight, things aren’t going to get any easier. Heyward is hitting just .188 to start the season, and his wOBA of .246 would easily be a career-low. The season is still very young, but one constant for Heyward is his struggles against left-handed pitching.
Heyward has a career wOBA of just .296 against lefties, and his slugging percentage drops over 100 points from .462 against righties to .351 against lefties in his seven years in the league. He also tends to strike out more against lefties with a strikeout rate of 23.1 percent. Combine all of that with the fact that Heyward has always been somewhat of a slow starter in his career, with an average of .223 and a BABIP of just .256 in the months of April and March, and you have a big landmine against Garcia tonight.
Garcia has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons, but this year, he is slowly looking like the dominant pitcher against lefties that he began his career as. He has struck out six of the 12 lefties he has faced so far this season, and before all of shoulder issues, he usually posted a strike out rate of around 25 percent against lefties during his first three full seasons in the Majors. If (and that’s a big if) Garcia is finally over his shoulder issues, lefties are going to be hard-pressed to get on base against him.
David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
FanDuel Price: $3,000
David Wright is coming off a huge night on Monday where he blasted two home runs against the Phillies. Recent performances are a big part of picking landmines in other sports, and in baseball, picking a player by his game log can be particularly misleading. This is true tonight for Wright, who is facing one of the hottest pitchers in the majors in Vincent Velasquez.
Velasquez has been nothing short of dominant in his first two starts of the season, and in his most recent one against the Padres, he went the distance with 16 strikeouts. His first start was against the Mets as well, and he gave up only three hits and struck out nine. Wright did not play in that game, but he might have some trouble against the Phillies’ flamethrower tonight if he is in the lineup.
Wright’s career strikeout rate against righties is 20 percent, and his wOBA drops almost 75 points to .357 against righties during his career. In 2014, his last full season, Wright’s wOBA was just .283 against righties, while his BABIP dropped to .295 and his ISO was only .094 against right-handed pitchers. Considering Velasquez has a strikeout rate of 51.9 percent to start the season against the 27 righties he has faced, I would lay off Wright tonight, even at Citizens Bank Park.