4 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitters for 4/14/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
FanDuel Price: $3,700
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Most people still don't realize how good Eugenio Suarez has been this season. A lot of people will be scared off by the Reds' low implied total, too. If that isn't enough to dissuade people, Suarez has done most of his damage against lefties this season and draws a matchup against a righty today.
Why You Should Use Him:
Suarez will face Jason Hammel, who posted a respectable 3.45 SIERA last year. Hammel experienced some reverse-splits, though, struggling while pitching against right-handed batters. He gave up a .452 slugging percentage and a 38.1 percent fly-ball rate to righties last year, both of which are quite a bit higher than his marks against lefties.
Enter Suarez, who has been absolutely mashing for Cincinnati. Through eight games, he has averaged 18.8 FanDuel points and has reached double-digit points in all but two games. His hot start is likely unsustainable but doesn't appear to be some sort of fluke, either.
His success at the plate is supported by a career-high 37 percent hard-hit rate, meaning Suarez is just crushing the ball right now. While the majority of that damage has come against lefties this season, a look at his numbers from last year provides us with a more reliable sample size.
In 2015, Suarez posted a 30.5 percent hard-hit rate against righties, as opposed to a 23 percent mark against lefties. He also elevated his fly-ball rate, going from 30 percent against lefties to 40.6 percent against righties.
The Reds don't have many other powerful right-handed bats to take advantage of this matchup with Hammel, but Suarez should be able to do enough damage on his own to be worth his price.
Kendrys Morales, 1B, Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Price: $3,100
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
First base is always loaded, and most daily fantasy players will target Eric Hosmer before Kendrys Morales if they are taking a Royals first baseman.
Why You Should Use Him:
Morales' opponent on the mound today will be Doug Fister, who posted a 4.47 SIERA last year and really struggled against right-handed batters. FIster allowed righties to hit for a higher slugging percentage and wOBA than he allowed to lefties, while also posing a 40.7 percent fly-ball rate, which bodes well for Morales, who posted 37.2 percent fly-ball rate against righties last season.
Morales experienced similar splits against righties across the board, raising his slugging percentage from .412 to .538 against righties, while raising his ISO from .113 to .254. Morales' hard hit-rate rose to 38.3 percent against righties last year too. All of these stats used in conjunction offer an easy explanation as to why Morales hit 18 of his 22 home runs against right-handed pitchers last season.
Fister also allowed lefties to pull the ball against him 46.3 percent of the time last year, and Morales pulled the ball 42.8 percent of the time against righties. He posted a .660 slugging percentage on balls he pulled against righties last year, along with a ridiculous 33.3 percent home run to fly ball ratio on pulled hits. Give Morales a look in tournaments tonight.
Preston Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
FanDuel Price: $2,500
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Preston Tucker is hitting in the bottom half of the order for Houston and has slowed down over his last three games. He's also facing Ian Kennedy, who threw a gem in his first start.
Why You Should Use Him:
Tucker and the Astros draw a matchup against Ian Kennedy, who can shut down an offense, but also is susceptible to the long ball -- especially against lefties. Kennedy gave up the fourth-most home runs last year, with 18 of the 31 coming off of the bat of left-handed batters.
Kennedy allowed a .522 slugging percentage to lefties, along with a 45.6 percent fly-ball rate in 2015. Those numbers are up from a .472 and 32.2 percent mark against righties.
This is all good news for Tucker, who demolishes right-handers. All 14 of his career home runs have come against righties, and among all of Houston's powerful bats, none posted a higher slugging percentage against righties in 2015 than Tucker's .494 mark. Tucker has also elevated his career ISO from .031 against lefties to .254 against righties, along with his wOBA from .210 to .357. His career hard-hit rate of 35.3 percent against lefties is also a significant improvement. He's an excellent source of cheap power potential tonight.
Luis Valbuena, 3B, Houston Astros
FanDuel Price: $2,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Luis Valbuena has started slow and is hitting in the bottom half of the lineup. He isn't likely to see ownership high enough to reflect his upside in this matchup.
Why You Should Use Him:
Valbuena is always a nice cheap source of power when facing a right-handed fly-ball pitcher, which he is tonight. As referenced with Tucker, Kennedy struggles mightily against lefties.
Valbuena, a lefty, absolutely crushes right-handed pitching. 20 of his 25 home runs came against righties last season, and he posted a 36.2% hard-hit rate and 45.1% fly-ball rate against righties.
In 2015, he also raised his slugging percentage from .316 against lefties to .481 against righties, while his ISO rose from .158 to .234.
He is one of the most exciting punt plays of the day, and pairing him with Tucker provides you with a contrarian lineup while still being able to pay up for chalkier studs at other positions.
