5 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/13/16
In daily fantasy baseball, pitchers are the cornerstone of your lineups. It’s important to spend wisely at the position; if your pitchers fail, your lineup is doomed.
In any slate, it’s also important to select the correct top-priced hitters. Luckily for us, some top bats have excellent matchups today.
Let’s take a look at the FanDuel studs for today’s main slate.
Pitchers
John Lackey, Chicago Cubs
FanDuel Price: $8,500
If you played MLB DFS on FanDuel last season, you’ve hopefully noticed the changes to the scoring system in 2016. While the difference in scoring may affect how we create our lineups in some areas, one statistic remains king: wins for pitchers.
A win is now worth 12 points for a starting pitcher, which is equivalent to four strikeouts or four innings pitched. Wins are problematic to predict, but it’s still profitable to target large Vegas favorites.
Tonight, John Lackey and the Cubs are a -215 favorite at home. While you should target Lackey for his win probability, you should also target him for his consistency. Consistency is a big reason why we pay up for pitching, and Lackey showed this in 2015: he pitched six or more innings in 28 of his 33 starts.
A ridiculous 25 percent of his fly balls left the yard in his first start, recording three home runs against him on the scorecard. It would be foolish to discount Lackey tonight because of the six-earned-run performance in his last start.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
FanDuel Price: $11,200
Stephen Strasburg should be the chalk pitcher in cash games tonight, as he is a -245 favorite at home versus the Atlanta Braves.
Writing this feels like déjà vu, as Strasburg was also a larger than -200 favorite versus the Atlanta Braves in this same article last Wednesday.
Strasburg didn’t disappoint in that outing, allowing just one earned run in six innings of work. However, his four strikeouts left a lot to be desired.
Last season, Strasburg struck out 11.23 batters per nine innings at home, but against this Braves lineup where all eight of its projected starting position players tonight struck out less than 20 percent of the time versus right-handed pitching last season, it’s hard to envision Strasburg nearing double-digit punchouts.
Use Strasburg in cash games for his win probability, but leave him out of your GPP lineups, as his strikeout upside is limited tonight.
Hitters
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Price: $4,800
When Carlos Gonzalez is at home versus right-handed pitching, there are few batters in the game who are better. Take a look at his numbers in this situation from 2015.
| AB | HR | wOBA | ISO | Fly Ball % | Hard Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 196 | 23 | 0.342 | 0.418 | 42.7 | 38.2 |
If you play MLB DFS regularly or even if you play season-long fantasy baseball, you know the effects of Coors Field and Colorado’s atmosphere. On days where there is a game in Coors, there are potentially 8 to 10 studs we could write about. CarGo is the number-one option today.
The Vegas total for tonight’s game is 12, highest on the board by far. Many people may be scared off from last night’s disappointing game, but your decision-making shouldn’t be clouded by a one-game sample. Use as many Rockies and Giants as you can in your cash lineups tonight.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
FanDuel Price: $3,500
If you’re not using a bunch of Rockies and Giants in your lineups because you’re looking to be contrarian or you can’t fit them with the stud pitchers above, Adrian Gonzalez is the next best option.
In 464 at-bats versus righties last season, Gonzalez posted a .230 ISO and .360 wOBA. These numbers were amplified at home for Gonzalez, as his numbers jumped to a.280 ISO and a fly ball percentage of 43.1.
Rubby De La Rosa will toe the rubber tonight, and he remains a target in 2016 after his miserable .255 ISO allowed versus left-handed hitters last season.
Gonzo has been homerless in eight games, which should keep his ownership percentage down in GPPs, making him an attractive first base option in your tournament lineups.
David Ortiz, 1B, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Price: $3,900
If you looked at David Ortiz’ numbers from a year ago, you’d never think 2016 would be his farewell tour.
Ortiz demolished right-handed pitching in 2015 to the tune of a .320 ISO and .413 wOBA, and he doesn’t look to be slowing down this season with three home runs already in just eight games.
After two high-scoring affairs in this series, Ubaldo Jimenez will take the mound for the Orioles, but don’t expect him to stop Big Papi.
Last season versus left-handed batters, Ubaldo’s fly ball rate nearly doubled compared to when facing right-handers -- up to 38.2 percent from 19.5 percent. He sustained an elite 59 percent ground ball rate versus righties, but he couldn’t keep lefties in check -- 13 of his 20 surrendered home runs were hit from that side of the plate.
At $3,900, Ortiz is a great play in any contest format.
