5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 4/6/16
Building daily fantasy baseball lineups can be intimidating. On any given slate, you have a massive number of options in front of you and a ton of factors to consider.
We're here to help take some of that burden off and break down some hitters who you can slot into your lineup for nice and cheap, while still being well-positioned to provide you with solid fantasy production.
Let's take a look at who's on the menu for today.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Oddsmakers give the Baltimore Orioles the highest implied total of the night at 4.53. Playing in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards and against one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Kyle Gibson, that's not much of a surprise.
Camden is especially favorable for lefties, and that's who Gibson struggles with the most, with a .323 wOBA and a lowly 12.4 percent strikeout rate in his career. He also has a career 4.22 SIERA, the highest mark among starters on the slate.
Pedro Alvarez, a lefty, has a great opportunity to take advantage of this matchup. His extreme splits by pitcher handedness keep his salary nice and low tonight, while his numbers are very promising. He owns a career .340 wOBA against righties, with a strong .228 ISO. He does tend to strike out a lot, but Gibson's poor strikeout rate combined with the huge upside that Alvarez offers make him an outstanding play tonight.
Billy Butler, 1B, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel Price: $2,700
While we're talking about extreme splits, White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon really fits the bill. His .247 wOBA against lefties is nothing to laugh at, but his career .350 wOBA against righties is the highest on the slate, while his 4.20 SIERA is the second-highest mark.
Billy Butler has been very productive against left-handers through his career, with a .379 wOBA and .199 ISO, while only posting a 13.0 percent strikeout rate. While his numbers in 169 plate appearances against lefties last year didn't look super impressive on the surface, a .303 wOBA and .150 ISO, a deeper look at the numbers leaves a lot of room for optimism. His 9.5 percent home run to fly ball ratio was much lower than his career average, while he still posted a 36.8 percent hard hit rate, indicating that a few bad breaks kept those numbers lower than they maybe should have been.
It takes a bit of faith to play Butler here, but his salary is nice and low, he has an excellent matchup against Rodon, and the numbers show plenty of reason to like him tonight.
Danny Valencia, 3B, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel Price: $2,500
While we're on the topic of targeting righties against Carlos Rodon, Danny Valencia joins his teammate Butler as an excellent play today.
In case you've already forgotten: Rodon has the second-highest career SIERA on the slate, while his .350 wOBA allowed to righties is the highest mark.
Valencia's career numbers against left-handed pitching -- a .371 wOBA, a .170 ISO, and a 13.7 percent strikeout rate -- aren't quite as impressive as Butler's, but those are still solid, especially when you pair it with the favorable pitching matchup.
He's priced at the bottom-end of third basemen tonight, and with a salary like that, he's in a great spot to return big-time value.
Stephen Piscotty, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
FanDuel Price: $2,700
Nicasio has allowed a career .333 wOBA to righties (the second-highest on the slate) and is sporting a 4.11 SIERA and 8.7 percent walk rate (both the third-highest on the slate).
Piscotty was great against left-handed pitching in his 2015 rookie campaign, posting a .393 wOBA and .203 ISO. There's not a huge sample size from last season, but with a 34 percent fly ball rate and 34 percent hard hit rate, we can see he was making some pretty good contact.
Against a better pitcher, there might be some more room for reservation here, but I love the matchup with Nicasio, and Piscotty's a solid play.
Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds
FanDuel Price: $3,100
Over the past five years, the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati has seen more home runs than anywhere other than Coors Field. Hitters gain a lot of fantasy value playing there, especially against pitchers who tend to give up home runs.
Aaron Nola is one of those pitchers. His 1.27 home runs per nine from his rookie year are the second-highest on the slate. He also really struggled against lefties last year, allowing a .359 wOBA.
Jay Bruce may be inconsistent, and he may strike out a lot, but his upside is tremendous. He has a career .344 wOBA and .223 ISO against right-handed pitchers and stands to give Nola some serious trouble.
With numbers like that, as well as a career 41.3 percent fly ball rate against righties, playing at home in one of the most home-run friendly stadiums in the Majors gives Bruce the kind of multi-home run upside you can't usually find at his price point.