5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 4/4/16
While the excitement of Opening Day has come, Monday feels like the true Opening Day for daily fantasy.
We've got a full slate of games.
Value can sometimes be hard to come by with the season just kicking off -- teams are all rolling out their top pitching options, and with no established batting orders yet, we don't get the easy-to-spot value of someone jumping up to the top of the lineup. With that being said, digging into the numbers reveals some excellent matchups and some talented hitters that have a great chance to out-perform their salaries.
Let's get right into the value plays.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Camden Yards is one of the most lefty-friendly parks in the Majors, ranking behind only Yankees Stadium and Coors field in home runs by left-handers over the past five years.
Ervin Santana will take the mound for the Twins today, giving even more of an edge to Orioles lefties. Santana’s career .337 wOBA against left-handed hitters is the third highest on the slate, and he’s coming off a 2015 season in which his wOBA against lefties was .346. He’s also no stranger to giving up home runs, and his career 1.16 home runs per nine is the fourth highest mark on the slate.
Pedro Alvarez has hit right-handers very well through his career, with a .340 wOBA and .228 ISO. He also managed a .237 ISO against righties last season. In a great spot Monday, both in terms of the ball-park and pitching matchup, Alvarez offers some very nice upside.
Joe Panik, 2B, San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Price: $2,600
Playing on the road in Milwaukee, Joe Panik will be in one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league. While he has posted a slightly higher wOBA against lefties through his first two seasons, he does seem to hit better against right handers. His ISO, ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio and hard-hit rate are all better against righties.
His matchup with the Brewers' Wily Peralta is also a favorable one. Peralta allowed a .376 wOBA to lefties last season, and has allowed a .351 over his career, which is the worst number of any starter today. His 4.75 SIERA last season was the worst mark of his young career, and he's definitely a guy you want to be picking on.
Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinatti Reds
FanDuel Price: $2,700
While the last two seasons may have been a bit disappointing for Jay Bruce, this is the kind of matchup that makes that very easy to forget. Even if you believe he’s taken a step back and isn’t as good as his career .215 ISO would indicate, looking at his splits from last season should have you interested in this matchup. His .317 wOBA against right-handed pitchers wasn’t great, but he posted a .232 ISO against them.
Jeremy Hellickson is one of the better pitchers to pick on for the slate, with the second highest career SIERA and third most homers per nine of all the starting pitchers. He has fared worse against lefties over his career, allowing a .321 wOBA compared to a .313 to righties, and with a 4.2 percent lower strikeout rate and 1.4 percent higher walk rate against lefties.
Bruce’s value doesn’t come from any sort of safety or high floor, but he offers you the kind of multi-home run upside that makes it easy to stomach a bit of risk, especially at his price point.
Yasmany Tomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
FanDuel Price: $2,800
Yasmany Tomas wasn’t great, but showed some promise against left-handed pitching in his rookie campaign, with a .337 wOBA and .198 ISO. He draws a good matchup to kick off the season against Jorge de la Rosa, who has allowed a career .347 wOBA to right-handed hitters -- the highest mark among today's starters. His career 4.29 SIERA also makes for an appealing matchup, as there are only two pitchers on the slate with worse marks.
It’s looking like a great day for batters in Phoenix tonight, with the forecast calling for it to be hot and dry. Chase Field is second only to Coors in total bases by left handed hitters over the past five seasons, and things are lining up nicely for Tomas to have a strong opening to his season.
Miguel Sano, OF, Minnesota Twins
FanDuel Price: $3,100
Chris Tillman may be the worst starting pitcher taking the mound for the slate. His 4.4 career SIERA is the highest of anyone on the slate, his 17.5 percent strikeout rate is the third lowest, his 8.4 percent walk rate is the third highest, and his 1.2 home runs per nine are the second most. Over his career, he's also fared slightly worse against right-handed batters.
Miguel Sano matches up really well with Tillman, as a righty that hit better against right-handed pitching in his rookie campaign. While his batting average was actually worse against righties, his wOBA (.397), ISO (.273), and fly-ball rate (46.1) were all better.
Sano's rookie numbers were outstanding, and Tillman isn't a pitcher that should scare you off much. It's surprising to see Sano's price tag this low, but that makes him one of the absolute best values on the slate.