MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 5/6/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
For the optimal rosters for the other main players, be sure to check out our brand new Daily Fantasy Optimized Rosters for our Premium members. We know that you're killing it with our picks; maybe now you'll help us continue to help you win each night, every night.
Access to the optimal rosters is immediate, and you'll have it constantly updated for the latest injury news and updates from around the league. The best news of all? For new subscribers, you can use the promo code WELCOME and get it 50% off what was already the reduced price. Think of the savings!
The Three Top Pitchers
Andrew Cashner - There aren't many truly terrible teams playing late games today. The Cubs are one of them (we'll get to their opposing pitcher in a second). The Marlins are the other. There's a reason that Cashner has the most projected fantasy points on all platforms among late-game starters: the Marlins are second-worst in the majors with a .291 OBP. When combined with Cashner's 22.2 percent career strikeout rate, capitalizing on the poor opponent should be a piece of cake given his price.
Nick Tepesch - And here's the other one: the Cubs aren't much better than the Marlins with their No. 27 .296 OBP. Tepesch may not have Cashner's K rate - his 4.40 projected strikeouts tonight sits only ninth among late-game starters - but his 2.72 projected runs allowed is the least among all starters who we expect to go at least six innings. Only holding 1.87 projected walks, third-lowest among six-inning pitchers behind Cliff Lee and Bronson Arroyo, doesn't hurt either.
Jarrod Parker - He won't be found on any of our optimized rosters today, but Parker's a good pickup for one simple reason: his cost is indicative of his 1-4 record and his 7.36 ERA, but his actual pitching hasn't been nearly that bad. Parker's been the victim of some horrible matchups and horrible luck this season - his .382 batting average on balls in play (BAbip) allowed is the sixth-highest in the majors among starting pitchers. Considering only one other A's pitcher (Brett Anderson, .333) is above .300 in that category and the league average is .294, I'm going to say that won't last, especially against Cleveland's average lineup.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Adrian Beltre - Beltre's current 10.1 percent strikeout rate is low among his career stats, but it's not so low that it's unsustainable. Same principle applies to his high 7.0 percent walk rate. And his 4.7 percent homerun rate is actually lower than the past two years but has still netted him six roundtrippers so far. Going against Scott Feldman's high 9.9 percent walk rate and homeruns allowed on 3.8 percent of opponents' plate appearances this season, I'll take my chances.
Shin-Soo Choo - He may have a lefty/lefty matchup with Maholm, but that hasn't stopped him in the past: he has reached base in three of his seven appearances all-time against the Braves pitcher. Continuing that rate would only futher a trend we've seen all season from the Reds slugger, as his OBP against lefty starters (.451 in 10 games) is only slightly lower than his OBP against righty starters (.469 in 21 games). Considering Maholm's 3.08 ERA has come courtesy of an unsustainably low .250 BAbip, I'm fine believing Choo can get to him tonight.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Jose Bautista - I think the term "Fall from Grace" is pretty applicable when I'm sticking him under the Mid-Range Cost header because he's lower-priced than Shin-Soo Choo. How's that second-round average fantasy draft position holding up, buddy? Still, the main reason behind Bautista's poor numbers is his historically unsustainably-low BAbip. .197? For a guy who is .268 career in that category? He's bound to come around sooner rather than later, especially with his homerun, walk, and strikeout rates holding firm from 2012.
A.J. Pierzynski - Years of watching White Sox games here in Chicago may have brainwashed me (thanks, Hawk Harrelson), but I love watching Pierzynski. And it's always nice when the numbers agree with me, especially considering Feldman's iffy numbers that I already discussed earlier with Beltre. But for Pierzynski, there's only one number to know: 0.87. That's his projected RBIs tonight hitting in the middle of the Rangers lineup. Only one other catcher (Mike Napoli, 0.85) has above 0.7 projected RBIs tonight.