4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 9/21/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. As a note, these stacks do not include the game at Coors between the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates. You already know to have ownership at Coors -- I don't need to tell you that. Here are the other teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Down in Triple-A this season, Erik Johnson was a boss. He averaged 9.23 strikeouts and 2.78 walks per nine innings, keeping his FIP deflated at 2.57. This was years better than the numbers he posted at that same level in 2014, yet it hasn't quite translated to big-league success yet. How do we evaluate this guy's talent?
For the time being, I'm fine with stacking against him. Through three starts this year in the Majors, Johnson has 12 strikeouts to 8 walks in 17 innings. Additionally, part of that great FIP in the minors was due to the fact that Johnson never allowed home runs at 0.34 per nine innings. However, in 68 1/3 innings in the Majors, Johnson has a 41.2 ground-ball percentage. While that's not a huge total, he's not a ground-ball extraordinaire. We should expect his home run total against to increase, and the Tigers are the perfect team to oblige regression's cruel grip.
Although Comerica Park is generally a friend of the fly-ball pitcher, that hasn't stopped the Tigers from spanking them left and right this season. Their slash against those types of hurlers is .274/.329/.438, giving them an sOPS+ (which compares this split to the league average with 100 being average) of 108. Ian Kinsler has been a big part of that onslaught, holding a .299/.335/.481 slash in these situations, and you may want to consider paying up for him despite the hefty price tag.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Jhoulys Chacin needs to get himself a new agent, bruh. He goes from spending his first six seasons in Coors Field to now calling Chase Field home. He still holds a respectable 3.75 career ERA, but dude is a magnet for launch pads. He gets some relief today by heading to Dodger Stadium, but I'm still digging the Dodgers in this one.
One of the many things the Dodgers have done exceptionally this year is draw walks against right-handed pitching. They are tops in the league at a 9.2 walk percentage on the season. In his 20 starts at Triple-A this year between the Diamondbacks' and the Cleveland Indians' systems, Chacin had an 8.4 walk percentage. There are going to be base runners on in this one, and that's a tough proposition when you consider that Chacin coupled that walk rate with a well-below-average 16.4 strikeout percentage. Things are setting up for a night of clogging the basepaths.
I'm guessing you've heard by now, but Corey Seager may have a future in baseball. Through his first 69 career plate appearances, Seager holds an unfathomable .379/.478/.603 slash. He has more walks than strikeouts, and he's merking the ball with a 42.9 hard-hit rate and a 14.3 soft-hit rate. It's too early to declare that Seager is the next superstar, but it's definitely not too early too say that I want this bad mamma jamma on my daily roster for tonight.
You kind of had to have this hope that when Jered Weaver went on the disabled list earlier this year, he'd come back refreshed and be somewhere close to his old self. Unfortunately, that has not been the case. In his eight games since returning, his xFIP has actually been worse at 5.43, driving his season-long total up to 5.09. He just doesn't quite seem to have it anymore.
This situation does present us with an interesting dilemma, however. Weaver has one sparkling gem on his resume this season, and that came when he held these Astros to no runs on six hits over a complete-game shutout on May 8th. In his three total starts against Houston, Weaver has allowed 4 runs over 21 innings pitched. I'm still willing to roll out the 'Stros as Weaver has a below-average strikeout rate of 6.86 per nine innings even over those three starts, but I wouldn't blame you if you decided against this one for that reason.
Weaver is a heavy fly-ball pitcher, so it makes sense that we may target fly-ball hitters if we're looking for some dong upside (though this does mean we sacrifice safety). I've mentioned him a few times recently, but I'd have a hard time not putting Colby Rasmus on my roster. He double-donged yesterday, but more importantly, he has a 51.6 fly-ball percentage on the season paired with a 34.0 hard-hit rate. He's currently three home runs shy of setting a new career high, and I wouldn't rule out his passing that total in the near future.
Toronto Blue Jays
Adam Warren has returned to the rotation at exactly the wrong time. Just one start since coming back, he gets to trek up to the Rogers Centre to face the Blue Jays and their lack of civility toward opposing pitchers. Life isn't always fair.
There are a couple of reasons this is a good matchup for the Jays. First, Warren hasn't been as good as a starter as he was as a reliever. Through 15 starts, he holds a 4.41 xFIP with only 6.02 strikeouts per nine innings. That's something to target. Second, he doesn't seem to have much more success against righties than he does lefties. His strikeouts increase to 21.1 percent, but the other categories allow his xFIP against righties (3.99) to be only slightly higher than it is against lefties (4.13). This is key against Toronto with how righty-heavy their best hitters are.
If you had to pick an MVP candidate from the Blue Jays, you'd obviously go Josh Donaldson. Dude's sick. But if we're looking at the second half only, Edwin Encarnacion would have to be in that discussion. Since the All-Star break, he ranks eighth in the league in home runs, fourth in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage, second in wOBA, and fifth in hard-hit rate. If you can only squeeze one of the Jays' big boppers onto your roster (and my main boo Justin Smoak doesn't float your boat), Encarnacion might be my guy.