4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 9/17/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Toronto Blue Jays
Last time he was on the mound, Matt Wisler actually did a decent job of limiting damage. He allowed 10 base runners over his 6 innings, but only 2 of them scored. Bravo, my boy! Unfortunately, with his 6.05 strikeouts per nine innings, such a performance is not exactly likely to duplicate itself, and he's now paired with the Blue Jays. It was fun while it lasted.
Even in that mildly surprising performance, Wisler's xFIP was at 4.61. He walked three batters, the fourth time he has walked at least that many in his past five outings. You can work around that some times, but the Jays sit atop the leaderboard in wOBA against righties for a reason. They good.
With Wisler, his numbers are absolutely atrocious against lefties, where he has a 6.71 xFIP. If Justin Smoak gets the start (unlikely with Edwin Encarnacion returning yesterday and no designated hitter), you should probably start him. Otherwise, Ben Revere should be able to knock Wisler around a bit. The other lefties the Jays could roll out don't provide as much appeal because of either location in the batting order or generic struggles, but keep an eye on the lineup once it comes out to see if any lefties find themselves in point-scoring positions.
The Astros have apparently decided that, upon entering a park with a better park factor than their own, that they hate runs. They've scored 11 runs in the first three games of the series with the Texas Rangers, even though they've had positive matchups in several of those. I'm hoping they can get off the schnide tonight with Colby Lewis on the mound.
In his 184 innings this year, Lewis has a 4.43 SIERA. This sits here because he only averages 6.26 strikeouts per nine innings and holds a ground-ball rate of only 34.5 percent. Because Houston strikes out so much, we want to roll them out against guys with lower strikeout rates, and Lewis fits that bill.
When looking at Lewis' splits, they get even worse against lefties, where his strikeouts per nine falls to 5.14. This is the first time the Astros have faced a right-handed starter in almost a week (last Friday against Jered Weaver), but in that matchup, they were righty heavy. The top left-handed bats in the lineup were Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena, batting sixth and seventh. In a tourney, I might be willing to try a unique stack in order to exploit Lewis' lefty struggles, foregoing the safety of extra plate appearances for potentially some extra pop. I wouldn't do it in cash games, but the Astros really aren't a great cash game stack to begin with.
After absolutely ethering the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen last night, the Nationals are now set to host the Miami Marlins. The Nationals are not a team I would want to face right now as a pitcher, so enjoy yourself tonight, Jarred Cosart.
Cosart is now five starts removed from a bout with vertigo, but he hasn't been allowed (for whatever reason) to pitch more than five innings in any of those outings. The hope here is that the Nationals could hop on his 4.57 SIERA early and force the Marlins to turn to middle relievers to ride out the rest of the storm. The Nationals certainly have the bats to make this a possibility.
Cosart for his career has a higher xFIP against righties (4.49) than against lefties (4.12), a tendency he has shown this year as well. That would direct my attention toward Jayson Werth, who is just merking baseballs right now. He has double-donged twice in the past three games and has eight home runs over his past 20. In that span, he holds a 40.9 hard-hit percentage, and his pricing has started to reflect that, at least on FanDuel where he costs $3,600. He is cheaper on other sites, but I still think I might be willing to pay up for him in the right matchup considering the solid contact he is making.
Tampa Bay Rays
I certainly wouldn't fault you for stacking the Baltimore Orioles in this matchup. Matt Moore has struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery and holds a 5.84 xFIP for the season. However, when he was in the minors in August, he showed that he still has some nasty stuff, striking out 16 batters over 6 innings in one outing, and that worries me against an Orioles lineup that holds a 23.0 strikeout percentage on the season against lefties. With Chris Tillman starting for the Orioles, I'd rather focus my efforts on the Rays.
In 27 starts this season, Tillman has averaged 6.24 strikeouts and 3.21 walks per nine innings. The high walk total coupled with his (improved) 43.9 ground-ball percentage has left him open to big innings. As such, he has allowed at least four runs in each of his past four starts, including one outing in which these same Rays donked him for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings.
Tillman's performance is virtually indistinguishable between righties and lefties. Even if he were reverse-splitsy and tougher on lefties, I know that John Jaso would still be in my lineup. You aren't going to find many catchers who bat near the top of their team's order, much less the very top of it. The more chances you give your batter to accumulate points, the better your team will do. Logical, right? Not many catchers will get more opportunities than Jaso, and he has come through on those opportunities often this year. He has a .283/.376/.441 slash with a 35.0 hard-hit percentage. And you can get all of that for minimum price on FanDuel. Blessings on blessings on blessings.