4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 8/7/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Toronto Blue Jays
Let me ask you this: are there any pitchers against whom you wouldn't stack the Blue Jays? I've swung and missed two nights in a row on these bats, but they are simply unfadable at this point. I don't see Nathan Eovaldi changing that.
Eovaldi's numbers indicate that he should be a lot better than he has been. His 3.96 SIERA is above average, but it's not terrible by any means. He does induce plenty of ground balls, but so does Kyle Gibson, and the Jays pounded the living poo out of him last night. In fact, on the season, the Jays have a collective .289/.360/.505 slash against high ground-ball pitchers. Not good news for the pinstripes.
Eovaldi has been throwing his change-up more and more over his past seven starts. He has gone to that pitch 27.8 percent of the time over that span as opposed to 10.6 percent in his first 14 starts. This is good news for Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, and Kevin Pillar, who have all had a high degree of success against the change this season. It might not be a terrible idea to roll out either Smoak and Pillar in a tourney as they figure to have significantly lower ownership than the rest of the sluggers.
Ugh, Wrigley Field, why must you torture us so? Your history is dope and all, but you're killing my DFS vibe with these Friday afternoon games. And which is more important -- history or DFS? You tell me, home slices.
Ryan Vogelsong makes his return to the rotation in a match-up against these lil pups. Vogelsong in his 101.2 innings this year has a 4.60 SIERA, which is stackalicious. The plus side here as he faces the Cubs is that his strikeout rates are a decent chunk below average. Their main struggles have been with that third strike, but Vogelsong's struggles in that department give the offense a boost.
With Vogelsong, you don't need to worry too much about platoon splits. Although righties strike out a bit more, it's not a truly actionable difference. This allows you to put a higher emphasis on batting order and take the upside bats that figure to see the most plate appearances. The high prices on pitching will make that more difficult, but it does make selecting your bats a bit easier.
I feel like I owe Joe Kelly an apology. I was in Boston for the first time in my life last Saturday and watching the Red Sox game in a restaurant. I made a comment about how well he was pitching against the Rays. When I said that, he had faced just one over the minimum through three innings. He then proceeded to allow five runs over the next two-plus innings. My bad, Joe. I'm assuming this recommendation won't help repair our relationship.
Kelly was still good overall in that game, allowing only one walk while striking out six. Even with that, though, his SIERA sits at 4.15 on the season. On the road, his xFIP over the past three seasons has been 4.31, 4.09 and 4.56 respectively, with the 4.56 mark coming in 2015. Dude's struggling right now.
This may be your last great chance to take advantage of a discounted Victor Martinez. He was slumping entering yesterday's game, but then he decided to launch a double dong. He hasn't been as good as he was last year, but he has certainly is better than he was prior to his trip to the disabled list. Kelly has been much better against lefties against this year, but his xFIP against them last year was 4.76. I'm willing to roll with Martinez in this situation when he'll only run me $3,500 on DraftKings.
As I've mentioned before, I enjoy stacking road team at Chase Field because the price bump doesn't usually reflect the positive park factor. Unfortunately, the Reds have enough good bats that their pricing is generally quite high. Either way, they are a great cash-game stack tonight and a good tourney option.
The reason I'm digging this match-up in cash games is that there don't figure to be a bunch of strikeouts. Balls in play are your best friend in cash games. Chase Anderson only averaged 5.74 strikeouts per nine innings prior to hitting the disabled list. Additionally, the Reds only strikeout 18.7 percent of the time against right-handed batters, and that includes the pitchers. When you add in the average walk rate of Anderson, you have a solid floor here.
The upside comes in the high-price bats. Joey Votto, Todd Frazier, and Jay Bruce are all $4,700 or higher on DraftKings. You'll be able to find value in whatever cheaper bat gets plopped higher in the order, but this stack will cost you on the whole. If you can find the room, though, it could bring you much happiness.