4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 7/30/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Toronto Blue Jays
I'm really not opposed to a Royals stack in this game, either. Marco Estrada has been straight-up awful his last five starts, posting a 5.60 xFIP over that time. I just generally avoid Royals stacks in tourneys because of their heavy singles mentality. That's not a concern for the Blue Jays against Danny Duffy.
We've been targeting the Jays' offense against left-handed pitchers all season because of their drool-inducing .360 wOBA and .182 isolated slugging. Getting to face Duffy and his 4.80 xFIP is just icing on this stackalicious cake.
The interesting thing is how much more enticing this stack is with Troy Tulowitzki. On the season, Jose Reyes has a .243/.275/.338 slash against lefties. Tulowitzki's road wOBA against lefties has been .450 and .357 the past two seasons respectively. This adds value to the rest of the Blue Jays' order, making them even more grotesquely intriguing whenever there's a lefty on the bump.
It really is a shame that a player with a nickname as beautiful as "Big Pasta" isn't having more success than Alfredo Simon. The fact we can stack against him makes it a bit easier to swallow, but it just seems like there is so much lost potential here.
Part of what made Simon effective when he was a reliever was that he induced ground balls a decent chunk of the time. His ground-ball rate was still solid at 48.2 percent last year, but it has dropped all the way down to 42.1 percent this year. When you have the low strikeout and above-average walk rates of Simon, that's probably not going to end well. You know, unless you're an Orioles fan.
The interesting thing about Simon is that he actually has very average strikeout numbers against right-handed batters at 20.9 percent. Against lefties, though, it drops to 14.2 percent. This makes me feel better about rostering the high-strikeout tendencies of Chris Davis, whose .271 isolated slugging against righties is quite enticing.
New York Yankees
Yovani Gallardo done used up all of his magic juju beans. Remember when he had that string of four consecutive starts without allowing an earned run? His ERA went zero to 100 real quick, and his xFIP followed suit.
Gallardo really did get off to a decent start this season, posting a 3.64 xFIP in his first 14 starts. However, something happened in the middle of June. His patented high ground-ball rate shot down to 41.5, and he has walked more batters than he has struck out over his past seven starts. This has propped his xFIP all the way to 5.37 over that span and his SIERA to 4.40 on the season. I generally tried to avoid him because he presented a lack of upside in stacks, but I'm not so sure that's the case anymore.
In basing our stack off of struggles over a small sample size, there's always the possibility Gallardo could be healed of the demons that had sent his game into the trash. Because of that, I want to safeguard myself by rostering hitters who hit the living daylights out of the ball against righties. Which Yankees do so on the most regular basis? The four guys who have the highest hard-hit rates this year are Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann and (drumroll)... Chase Headley! If Headley slots back up into the two hole, he's an interesting play who's starting to heat up with a .377/.413/.507 slash in the month of July.
I'm not as enthralled by this matchup, as Vegas is with the over/under at 9 and the Twins -143. That said, I do understand why the line is up that high, even if I do think that J.A. Happ is better than for what he's given credit. Here's what (in my eyes) Vegas sees in rating this game so highly.
Paul Molitor has done a lot of things well in his first year as manager, one of them being his implementation of platoons. Happ has absolutely obliterated left-handed batters, averaging 11.57 strikeouts and 1.93 walks per nine innings. Right-handers, however, have struck out only 5.49 times per nine innings while walking 2.85 times. With this in mind, you know the Twins are going to load up on right-handed bats, putting Happ in a low-success situation.
Entering yesterday, the sample size of Miguel Sano's Major League career was up to 79 plate appearances. That's still super small, but I would like all of you to appreciate this for a second. Over his first 79 plate appearances at baseball's highest level of competition, Sano had a 52.8 percent hard-hit rate. The league average is 28.6 percent, which is only 54.2 percent as large as Sano's mark. This lends some legitimacy to his .299/.429/.522 slash and makes his $4,200 price on DraftKings look like a steal. Also, if Aaron Hicks hits second again, be sure to include him in your lineup. Sorry to those of you who follow me on Twitter and have had to deal with my constant gushing over him, but dude is cooking right now.