MLB
With Johnny Cueto, Only One Team Has a Higher Probability of Winning the World Series Than the Royals
The Royals' acquisition of Cueto will help them -- a lot -- in their quest for a return trip to the World Series.

I told them not to do this. But since when does anyone listen to me?

Just days ago, I wrote a piece here on numberFire that suggested the Royals not go "all-in" on a starting pitcher. My argument was that I didn't think it was smart for a small-market team like Kansas City to use up its meager resources to grab one of the elite starters on the market, when they already had a 96.0% chance of making the playoffs, a 90.0 % chance of winning the division, and a 10.2% chance of winning it all (third-highest percentage in MLB).

But even with all that, the Royals' starting pitching was a mess, and it could have been something that would hurt them in the postseason.

General Manager Dayton Moore agreed with the consensus and decided to eschew my advice, trading for Cincinnati Reds ace Johnny Cueto on Sunday. In return, the Royals gave up Brandon Finnegan, their second-best prospect coming into the season and number-one draft pick from a year ago, who made his Major League debut just weeks after getting drafted. Kansas City also gave up minor league pitchers John Lamb and Cody Reed.

For the Royals, the addition of a seemingly-healthy Cueto is a huge difference-maker. There had been worries about his elbow and whether or not it was going to hold up for the rest of the year, but Johnny seemed to squelch a lot of those concerns with a dominant eight-inning, shutout performance on Saturday night.

On the season, Cueto is 7-6 with a 2.62 ERA (14th in MLB), a fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 3.12 (24th), an fWAR of 2.9 (tied for 15th), and a MLB.com, Reed was the team's 26th-best prospect.

All in all, this is not a deal that cripples the Royals' future, which was my main concern over trading for a player like Cueto. While the Reds get a few decent prospects, the give for Kansas City was manageable. And after all, this is a team that clearly has World Series aspirations.

Kansas City got Cueto at a manageable price, and now have a true ace to lead their staff into October.

Just like I said they should!

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