MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 7/23/15
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw's now given up two earned runs over his last four starts, which includes a total of 31 innings pitched. Over this time, he has 43 strikeouts, including 27 over his last two starts. Tonight he faces a Mets team that's striking out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball against left-handed pitching, all while hitting to the third-lowest wOBA in the split. Kershaw's money tonight.
Alternative Option: Francisco Liriano
Lance McCullers – Not going Kershaw in cash games, logically, would be a mistake, but if you're looking for a number-two guy or a cheap GPP option, McCullers could be it according to our algorithm. He has a strong 2.57 FIP in 64.1 innings pitched this year, with a high 9.93 strikeout per nine rate. The Red Sox, his opponent, can handle right-handers pretty well (12th in wOBA, second lowest K rate), but McCullers is at a favorable price point -- especially on FanDuel -- to warrant a start.
Alternative Option: Tom Koehler
Adam Lind – Lind is more of a mid-tier guy, but I'm putting him in the high-cost hitter category because it's Adam Lind. As a high-cost hitter. What is happening? Well, what's happening is that he's had some monster games, including last night where he went 4 for 5 with a double, homer and 4 RBI. The Brewers are in Arizona, a nice hitter's park, and Lind gets the platoon against the inexperienced righty, Zack Godley. Against righties this season, Lind has a .404 wOBA and .251 ISO -- the kind of numbers that are perfect for DFS.
Jason Kipnis – Tonight's slate is interesting because the high-cost players aren't really there, but our algorithm does like Kipnis against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija has a reasonable 3.80 FIP this season, but his strikeout rate's been down and he's giving up a good number of line drives (22.3% versus a career 20.5% rate). And against lefties, he's allowed a .338 wOBA. Kipnis, meanwhile, has a .429 wOBA against right-handers this year. It's a pretty good matchup despite the big name he's facing.
Alternative Option: Paul Goldschmidt
Joc Pederson – It hasn't been great for Joc in July. This month, he has just a .047 ISO and .202 wOBA -- he's slumping hard. But that's brought his cost in DFS way down, and he'll get a favorable matchup against Bartolo Colon tonight where he has the platoon advantage. Given what he's done this year, his talent, his cost and natural regression, he's a strong play.
Colby Rasmus – Rasmus isn't a stellar hitter, I know, but our algorithm pinpointed him as a relatively decent value play tonight, and it makes sense. The Astros get Wade Miley, who's seen pretty big splits this season against righties, allowing a .335 wOBA. Rasmus' numbers aren't great, but he does hit lefties a lot better than he does righties. At what should be the heart of the Astros order, you could do a lot worse.
Alternative Option: Matt Carpenter