MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 7/22/15 (Night Slate)
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Lance Lynn – Tonight's slate is kind of ugly, and our algorithm likes Lance Lynn most in a good matchup against the White Sox. Chicago ranks 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and are striking out at a pretty average clip. Meanwhile, Lynn's been really strong since May, allowing no more than two earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. His strikeout per nine rate has been stronger this year than last, too, currently sitting at a really good 9.67. He's arguably the safest option on the night slate (aside from the guy listed below, perhaps), and should be in store for a win given his pitching opponent is John Danks.
Alternative Option: Sonny Gray
Robbie Ray – The cheap pitchers are even rougher than the elite ones tonight from a value standpoint. Ray will be pitching at home against the Marlins, a team that's hit left-handed pitching well this year. But this Marlins lineup isn't sensationally strong without Giancarlo Stanton, and Ray has been good himself -- he has a 2.57 FIP on the year in 55 innings pitched, and a 7.53 strikeout per nine rate. I wouldn't trust him in cash games -- no way -- but with so few cheap pitchers on the board, he's a GPP option.
Alternative Option: N/A
JD Martinez – Martinez gets Mike Montgomery tonight, who's pitched well this year according to his 2.51 ERA. But his FIP is lower at 3.65, so he hasn't been as good. Regardless, the Mariners travel to Detroit, where a Tigers lineup has nearly a five run over/under in the game. Martinez has been mashing, and with a platoon advantage -- despite the fact that, in limited time, Montgomery looks more reverse splits -- he should perform.
Mike Trout – There aren't tremendous plays tonight overall given the ugliness of the slate, so when in doubt -- and if you're looking to spend -- go with Trout. He ranks in the top 10 within our projections for the day, and will face Mike Pelfrey, who has a tendency to blow up. If you want or need to spend, feel free to do so with Trout.
Alternative Option: Jose Bautista
Matt Holliday – Holliday hit a grannie last night, so it appears he's back and feeling strong after a month-plus hiatus. His price point is more mid-range, but he's still cost-effective considering our algorithm is high on him tonight against the aforementioned Danks, who has a 4.48 FIP on the year, close to his career average. He's also allowing a .382 wOBA to right-handed batters this season, so with the platoon advantage, Holliday should be able to do work.
Mike Moustakas – Charlie Morton certainly has regressed since starting out strong for the Pirates, and has now surrendered 9, 4, 3, 2 and 4 runs over his last five starts. He's allowing a wOBA of .352 to lefties this season, which is far worse than his performance against righties. That plays into Moose, who has a .384 wOBA against right-handers this year versus his kind of disgusting .293 wOBA against southpaws. He'll bat high in the order, and you'll get cheap exposure to a lineup that's projected to score over four runs tonight.
Alternative Option: Lucas Duda