4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 7/10/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. As a note, this does not include the game at Coors. The Braves appear to be the much better option, but I'm not as ecstatic about that contest as I am about most Coors games. You should still have exposure, but you might not want to go too crazy. Here are the other teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are in a bit of a funk as of late. Their definition of a funk is that they have gone four games without hitting double digits in the run column. That may seem facetious, but they've done so 15 times this year, so it's really not. Tonight, they face Danny Duffy with a chance to break out of that cold streak.
Duffy enters tonight's game with a 4.60 xFIP through his 11 starts and just a 36.0 ground-ball percentage. Right-handed batters have a 36.2 percent hard-hit rate against him largely because he has allowed line drives on 29.4 percent of all batted balls. The scary part is that these numbers are largely in line with his career marks. With the Blue Jays holding a commanding lead for the best wOBA in the league against lefties, this has blowout potential.
The DraftKings pricing on this game is as reasonable as it has been on the Jays in quite some time. This means you don't have to get weird with your stacking strategies as we had discussed back on Wednesday. While you should never stack a team and/or player simply because of their pricing, the Jays provide the run potential we are looking for, and they just-so-happen to be priced well.
Unfortunately, we're almost at the point where you automatically have to stack against Justin Verlander until he gives you a reason not to. That's no fun. But, in his four starts, his lowest xFIP is 4.78, and it sits at 5.76 overall. He's not getting ground balls or strikeouts, and his walks are high. I'm hoping this reverses soon because he was always so much fun to watch, but until then, roll out the Twinkies.
It's hard to tell how to handle Verlander when it comes to platoon splits. From 2011 to 2014, Verlander had reverse splits with right-handers hitting him harder than lefties. That said, he's not the same pitcher he was then. This year, left-handed batters have a 50.0 fly-ball percentage against him and a higher hard-hit rate. It's such a small sample size, though, that it's hard to tell what's a signal and what is noise. This is where you may want to just go with the best bats available from that respective team.
Upon first glance, it looks like the Twins struggle against righties, ranking 22nd in wOBA. It looks that way because that's true. However, things have picked up as of late as they ranked 29th not too long ago. What caused the change? Little homie named Miguel Sano. Entering last night, he had a 62.5 percent hard-hit rate and just a 6.3 percent soft-hit rate (the league averages are 28.5 and 18.5 respectively). This gives a boost to guys such as Joe Mauer and Trevor Plouffe, who had been hitting in front of a cavernous hole of suck prior to his promotion. Obviously, you can't use both Sano and Plouffe because of their position eligibility, but this is still a high-upside stack for tonight.
This stack does not come without a good chunk of risk. Ian Kennedy has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the Bigs this year with his crazy-high home run to fly-ball ratio, so his 4.84 ERA and 5.20 FIP are deceptive. He can also rack up the strikeouts, and the Rangers are very much average in that category. The upside here, though, against a fly-ball pitcher is hard to pass up.
Only once over the past six seasons has Kennedy held left-handed batters to a fly-ball rate below 40.0. This is conducive to a high slugging percentage, and that's a concept with which the Rangers are familiar. Their left-handed batters have a collective .473 slugging percentage against righties this year, the second highest total in the league. If you're looking for extra-base hits, then this is a match-up that could be worth the aforementioned risk.
The difficult decision (in theory) when stacking the Rangers is deciding whether to use Prince Fielder or Mitch Moreland. I am honestly not sure that I have used Fielder even once this year. Moreland against righties has a higher slugging percentage, isolated slugging, fly-ball percentage, hard-hit rate and a far more realistic BABIP. Oh, and he's $400 cheaper on DraftKings, though that gap has closed considerably. It's really no contest for me, though both are still solid plays for tonight.
Tillman doesn't strikeout a lot of batters, his walks are high, and he allows plenty of fly balls. This has churned out a 4.83 xFIP on the season through 16 starts. He has exhibited reverse splits both for this season and his career, but that doesn't mean you should just forget that Bryce Harper guy exists.
Michael Taylor is quite the juicy option if he's hitting leadoff again. He has a 35.5 percent fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers this year, he can knock it out the park, and he's got a good amount of speed. If he hits eighth, I'm 100 percent off. A batter in front of the pitcher is -- far and away -- the worst lineup position in all of baseball. But there's enough reason to be excited about Taylor, especially at $3,100 on DraftKings if he sneaks to the top.