4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 7/3/2015
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
This, for the second consecutive day, is a "Pick 'Em" stack in which both teams are viable options. Of the starting pitchers, Kyle Kendrick has the lower ground-ball rate, the lower strikeout rate, and the higher walk rate. That might be an indication we should stack against him.
It's generally not great process to look at the raw number of home runs a pitcher has allowed. I, however, am dumb and glanced at Kendrick's, and I thought it was a typo. Kendrick, in just 16 starts, has allowed 23 bombs. Part of that is an inflated home run to fly-ball ratio from Coors, but he also only induces ground balls 38.5 percent of the time. In this instance, he has allowed those home runs for a reason, so the raw number is fairly indicative of his skill, and that skill is sub-optimal.
Everybody knows Paul Goldschmidt is ill. You could gain some points if people are scared off by his $6,000 price tag on DraftKings, but there is plenty of pop elsewhere in the lineup. David Peralta is a steal at $4,200, and Welington Castillo is a sweet tourney play. He has a 47.1 percent fly-ball rate against righties, putting him in prime position for a sneaky dong tonight.
This is a stacker's delight. John Danks against a team that ranks sixth in the league in wOBA against lefties? Hello, beautiful.
Danks provides the low-strikeout and high-fly-ball totals we look for in a stack. Right-handed batters have capitalized on those totals by posting a .311/.362/.570 slash through 274 plate appearances. Those batters collectively would have the eighth-highest slugging percentage in the entire freaking league right now, so, yes, you should stack the Orioles today.
An interesting name for the Orioles is Nolan Reimold. This is not because of his small-sample-size domination of left-handed pitching but rather his spot in the batting order. Reimold's past two starts have come from the three- and the two-hole respectively, both against left-handed pitchers. If he's there again, his $3,000 DraftKings salary looks mighty intriguing.
Boston Red Sox
As with the Rockies-Diamondbacks game, I wouldn't fault you for stacking either side of this match-up. For me, Justin Masterson's ground-ball rate is too high for a Houston stack, so we'll bump with Boston tonight.
The mildly concerning thing about targeting Dan Straily is his high strikeout rate. He averaged 8.13 strikeouts per nine in 52 innings last year and 8.11 in 14 starts at Triple-A prior to being recalled. This concern is decreased as the Red Sox have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league against righties. Additionally, Straily can't keep the ball on the ground, inducing ground balls just 35.1 percent of the time in 243.2 career Major-League innings, so let's ride.
If you had to guess, which qualified Red Sox batter would you say has the highest fly-ball rate against righties? For me, Mookie Betts would not have topped the list, but he does at 46.6 percent. It has resulted in a .468 slugging percentage. When you add in his stolen base abilities, it starts to seem as though Mookie's $4,600 price on DraftKings is not only reasonable but desirable in a matchup like this.
This will be my contrarian stack of the day even though it's hard to call a stack against Jeremy Guthrie contrarian. With so many other options on the slate, I could see it sliding a bit under the radar, and that might be a mistake in this one.
In most cases, I try to avoid stacking the Twins because their offense isn't that great. However, they have been getting better against right-handed pitchers and in the same division as both Guthrie and Danks, you'll have some opportunities. That's what the Twins have in this one. Not only that, but their offense could be on the verge of being better than it has been previously.
If you've been following the team, then it will come as no shock this potential increase in offense is due to Miguel Sano. People always say that Sano has prodigious power, and he lives up to that billing. Sano slugged .544 at Double-A prior to his promotion and .621 from May 7th on. Putting him in the same lineup as Brian Dozier, who actually slugs over .500 against both righties and lefties, is a recipe for an offense bound to trend in the right direction.